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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800M | 100% | +8 pts | +32 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $1B | 100% | +66 pts | +69 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $2.5B | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $1.5B | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $400M | 100% | +1 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $2B | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241d |  beenraping2 fills | $1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,946 | +$19 +0.1% | 2 |
| 241d |  scout4 fills | $1B | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $24,089 | +$444 +1.8% | 2 |
| 241d | FreeWillyR | $800M | SellYes>99¢ | $6,480 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 241d | scout | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,263 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 241d |  Nik- | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,695 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 241d | Nik-2 fills | $1B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,017 | +$66 +1.3% | 2 |
| 241d | tostitos3 fills | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,000 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 241d | sladk | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,980 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 241d | scout | $2.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,732 | +$28 +0.1% | 2 |
| 241d |  Infringe2 fills | $1B | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $3,461 | +$3,285 +95% | 2 |
| 241d | Nik- | $400M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 241d | scout | $400M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,437 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 241d |  ReinforcementLearning | $400M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,976 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 241d |  .ethguy | $1B | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$211 +2.1% | 2 |
| 241d | Basheeee | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,303 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 241d | bravenoob21 | $1B | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,002 | −$174 −8.7% | — |
| 241d | Nik- | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,060 | +$27 +0.7% | 2 |
| 241d |  Dropper2 fills | $1B | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $18,166 | +$2,273 +13% | 2 |
| 241d | viberefllex2 fills | $2.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,000 | +$31 +0.3% | 2 |
| 241d | roflingbets | $2.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,779 | +$48 +1.0% | 2 |
| 241d | kslt | $1B | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,682 | +$1,031 +61% | 2 |
| 241d | Trick3 fills | $2.5B | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,997 | −$126 −2.1% | — |
| 241d | liquidityp00l6 fills | $1B | BuyYes46¢ → 100¢ | $29,654 | +$35,471 +120% | 5 |
| 241d | viberefllex | $1B | SellYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,335 | −$1,694 −127% | — |
| 241d | kinzyaku | $1B | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,990 | +$2,010 +101% | 2 |
| 241d | viberefllex | $1B | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$1,729 +133% | 2 |
| 241d | mlinw2 fills | $800M | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $7,607 | −$658 −8.7% | — |
| 241d | dayz666 | $1B | SellNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,328 | +$1,328 +100% | — |
| 241d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | $1.5B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,208 | −$46 −1.1% | — |
| 241d | alexfingroup | $2.5B | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,659 | −$42 −1.6% | — |
| 241d | 0xdamocles | $800M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,411 | −$24 −1.0% | — |
| 241d | 1881aa2 fills | $400M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,038 | −$18 −0.6% | — |
| 241d | KamAlla | $2B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,208 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 241d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,786 | +$57 +0.8% | 2 |
| 241d | JosephTrump2 fills | $2.5B | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,773 | +$227 +2.9% | 2 |
| 241d | tradexplorer2 fills | $1B | SellYes38¢ → 100¢ | $2,068 | −$3,397 −164% | — |
| 241d | sleepin | $400M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,762 | +$5 +0.3% | 2 |
| 241d | lexaman.eth | $1B | SellNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,914 | +$1,914 +100% | — |
| 241d | mr-bean | $1B | SellYes34¢ → 100¢ | $2,566 | −$4,980 −194% | — |
| 241d |  alanhutton | $1.5B | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,331 | −$89 −3.8% | — |
| 241d | hitjnn214 | $1B | BuyYes37¢ → 100¢ | $1,739 | +$2,961 +170% | 3 |
| 241d | 1881aa4 fills | $400M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,550 | +$66 +1.2% | 2 |
| 241d | Vitaaalya | $2.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,135 | +$8 +0.7% | 2 |
| 241d |  AlexLiu | $2.5B | SellNo100¢ | $1,821 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 241d | mlinw | $2B | SellNo100¢ | $10,373 | −$52 −0.5% | — |
| 241d | mlinw2 fills | $2.5B | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $21,285 | −$1,540 −7.2% | — |
| 241d | akkrosh | $800M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,472 | −$27 −1.8% | — |
| 241d | lexaman.eth | $1B | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $1,230 | −$1,230 −100% | 2 |
| 241d | mlinw | $2B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$425 +4.2% | 2 |
| 241d | Vitaaalya | $2B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,598 | +$212 +4.6% | 2 |
| 241d | mlinw4 fills | $2.5B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $20,990 | +$804 +3.8% | 2 |
| 241d | Pakost | $1B | SellYes40¢ → 100¢ | $3,185 | −$4,778 −150% | — |
| 241d | odifof | $1B | SellYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,723 | −$2,584 −150% | — |
| 241d | liquidityp00l3 fills | $1B | SellYes38¢ → 100¢ | $5,776 | −$9,607 −166% | — |
| 241d |  QianlongJr | $2.5B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | +$52 +3.9% | 2 |
| 241d | Bat-man2 fills | $2.5B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,074 | +$219 +4.3% | 2 |
| 241d | Nik-3 fills | $2.5B | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,532 | +$193 +3.0% | 2 |
| 241d |  CertifiedCRY | $2.5B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,393 | +$108 +4.5% | 2 |
| 241d |  Totenkopf | $800M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,363 | +$17 +1.3% | 2 |
| 241d | alexanderya | $2B | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,316 | +$84 +6.4% | 2 |
-Shape-2,837 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Flying Tulip's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Flying Tulip doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $800M means the market gives it about 100%.