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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seán Kyne | 100% | +31 pts | +69 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 158d |
| Sheila Garrity | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Niall Murphy | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Orla Nugent | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Helen Ogbu | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Denman Rooke | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Noel Thomas | 0% | −38 pts | −46 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Thomas Welby | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Mike Cubbard | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| Person A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Person O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 158d |
| Mark Lohan | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152d |  thebloodangel | Noel Thomas | SellNo>99¢ | $1,261 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 152d |  tomatosauce2 | Noel Thomas | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,550 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 152d | tphhh | Helen Ogbu | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,536 | +$11 +0.1% | 10 |
| 152d | tphhh | Thomas Welby | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,187 | +$5 +0.1% | 10 |
| 152d | KiernanMeister2 fills | Orla Nugent | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,069 | +$15 +0.1% | 10 |
| 152d | KiernanMeister | Sheila Garrity | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,818 | +$16 +0.1% | 10 |
| 153d | tphhh | Sheila Garrity | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,680 | +$7 +0.1% | 10 |
| 153d | tphhh | Niall Murphy | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,585 | +$13 +0.1% | 10 |
| 153d | tphhh | Denman Rooke | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,530 | +$10 +0.1% | 10 |
| 154d | MatchMaker | Helen Ogbu | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,454 | +$169 +12% | 10 |
| 157d | FMANTENNA | Helen Ogbu | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | −$100 −9.3% | — |
| 239d | BuBuandDuDu | Sheila Garrity | SellNo56¢ → 100¢ | $5,068 | −$3,982 −79% | — |
| 239d | BuBuandDuDu | Sheila Garrity | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $8,417 | +$633 +7.5% | 10 |
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Seán Kyne means the market gives it about 100%.