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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10% | 0 pts | +6 pts | 4¢ · 16¢ (13¢) | $6.21 | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 144d | Inchoroi | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | −$17 −1.4% | — |
| 162d | sanghaean | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | −$48 −4.6% | — |
| 162d | sanghaean | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$46 +4.5% | 20 |
| 162d | Cormac255 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | +$47 +4.5% | 20 |
| 162d | KittiphobPrach2 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$45 +4.5% | 20 |
| 162d | Craig200 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | −$49 −4.5% | — |
| 162d | Neville5352 fills | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,210 | −$98 −4.4% | — |
| 162d | Craig200 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | +$48 +4.4% | 20 |
| 162d | Neville5352 fills | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,219 | +$89 +4.0% | 20 |
| 162d | malachi106arnold | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$44 +4.4% | 20 |
| 162d | emmelineagnes58052 fills | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,248 | +$88 +3.9% | 20 |
| 163d | emmelineagnes5805 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | −$51 −4.4% | — |
| 163d | ismael426macy | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,061 | −$47 −4.4% | — |
| 163d | ismael426macy | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$39 +3.6% | 20 |
| 163d | CJohn60455 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | −$39 −3.6% | — |
| 163d | Oscar862 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | −$37 −3.6% | — |
| 163d | Regina429 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | −$38 −3.6% | — |
| 163d | Regina429 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$38 +3.6% | 20 |
| 163d | Oscar862 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | +$37 +3.6% | 20 |
| 163d | CJohn60455 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$39 +3.6% | 20 |
| 163d | skyereed9261 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$40 +3.6% | 20 |
| 163d | caydonpaige4461 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | +$36 +3.2% | 20 |
| 163d | SturvR | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,153 | +$37 +3.2% | 20 |
| 163d | Kian885 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$37 +3.2% | 20 |
| 163d | baydaxton3257 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$37 +3.2% | 20 |
| 163d | VizualTravel | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | −$29 −2.9% | — |
| 163d | VizualTravel | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$33 +3.2% | 20 |
| 163d | Niprince35 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$35 +3.2% | 20 |
| 163d | chelsea12dido | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,314 | +$45 +3.4% | 20 |
| 163d | wendynova1836 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | −$36 −3.5% | — |
| 163d | Redskinroach | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | +$38 +3.6% | 20 |
| 163d | jaylin260ieuan | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$36 +3.5% | 20 |
| 163d | wendynova1836 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$36 +3.5% | 20 |
| 163d | spacegoatv1 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | −$37 −3.5% | — |
| 164d | laviniadayton1888 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | −$46 −4.5% | — |
| 164d | Petra957 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | +$54 +4.5% | 20 |
| 164d | spacegoatv1 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$46 +4.5% | 20 |
| 164d | CTOSHINAKAMOTO | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,157 | +$49 +4.3% | 20 |
| 164d | senngao | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$48 +4.3% | 20 |
| 164d | laviniadayton1888 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$44 +4.3% | 20 |
| 164d | jenny215harper | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | +$48 +4.3% | 20 |
| 164d | niorocampoo | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$38 +3.6% | 20 |
| 164d | Francine130 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | +$40 +3.6% | 20 |
| 164d | Delbert62 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$31 +2.9% | 20 |
| 164d | Madeline195 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$31 +2.9% | 20 |
| 164d | aislinnvienna5264 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$31 +2.9% | 20 |
| 165d | Zueerttr7 fills | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $136,737 | +$1,145 +0.8% | 20 |
| 165d | Tuzzrr7 fills | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $136,969 | +$1,166 +0.9% | 20 |
| 165d | Tuzzrr | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,767 | −$15 −0.9% | — |
| 198d | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $9,079 | +$478 +5.3% | 20 | |
| 233d | Smallpeepee | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | +$80 +6.5% | 20 |
| 234d | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,373 | −$100 −7.3% | — | |
| 236d | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$97 +7.0% | 20 | |
| 260d | momom | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,422 | +$91 +6.4% | 20 |
| 305d | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | −$163 −15% | — | |
| 305d | udellwho | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,701 | −$544 −32% | — |
| 305d | udellwho | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,155 | +$90 +4.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 10¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 10%.