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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 236d |  Cloverince | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,227 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 236d |  khai13 | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,726 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 236d |  Whylik | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,483 | −$16 −0.6% | — |
| 236d |  neetbets | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 236d | Jerzy | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,000 | +$19 +0.5% | 20 |
| 236d |  Trusty-Wormhole2 fills | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,820 | +$76 +1.3% | 20 |
| 236d |  0x8028Ut8377473 | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$75 +1.9% | 20 |
| 236d | Nbest55 | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,346 | +$42 +3.1% | 20 |
| 236d | Poory | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | +$96 +5.3% | 20 |
| 236d |  Car3 fills | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,463 | +$290 +5.3% | 20 |
| 236d | greengasper | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$158 +7.9% | 20 |
| 236d | greengasper | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | SellNo14¢ → 0¢ | $1,244 | +$1,244 +100% | — |
| 236d | sofia1 | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,413 | +$101 +4.2% | 20 |
| 236d | Uncommon-Terracotta | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$84 +5.5% | 20 |
| 236d | Whylik | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,799 | +$200 +11% | 21 |
| 236d |  ydxistheking2 fills | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $14,463 | +$1,027 +7.1% | 20 |
| 236d | denizz | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyNo20¢ → 0¢ | $1,075 | −$1,075 −100% | 22 |
| 236d | Djdjfjfhdbdjjdf | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,333 | −$611 −18% | — |
| 236d | Flowery-ApricotNew account | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$583 +6.5% | 23 |
| 236d | denizz | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | −$137 −14% | — |
| 236d | Polished-Foray2 fills | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$507 +17% | 21 |
| 236d | Uncommon-PuritanNew account | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,781 | −$94 −5.3% | — |
| 236d | Watery-Spirituality | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,600 | +$109 +4.2% | 20 |
| 236d | Djdjfjfhdbdjjdf | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,467 | +$478 +14% | 21 |
| 236d |  Pulser | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,666 | +$369 +22% | 21 |
| 236d | Djdjfjfhdbdjjdf | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | SellNo55¢ → 0¢ | $1,604 | +$1,604 +100% | — |
| 236d | Djdjfjfhdbdjjdf | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 22 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of October 31, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.
