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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below G1 | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| G1 | 0% | −16 pts | — | — · 3¢ | — | ended |
| G2 | 0% | −20 pts | — | <1¢ · 7¢ (7¢) | — | ended |
| G3 or higher | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · 6¢ | — | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This market will resolve according to the highest NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) geomagnetic storm level recorded between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC on October 2, 2026. Geomagnetic storm levels are defined by the estimated planetary K-index (Kp) on the NOAA Space Weather Scales: G1 corresponds to Kp 5, G2 to Kp 6, G3 to Kp 7, G4 to Kp 8 and G5 to Kp 9. The highest level is taken from the highest 3-hour estimated Kp value observed within that period; if no interval reaches Kp 5, this market will resolve to “Below G1”. This market resolves on the estimated planetary K-index published by SWPC in real time. Subsequent revision of the definitive Kp index by GFZ Potsdam will not affect resolution. In the case for which no data is posted by the NOAA SWPC planetary K-index by October 5, 2026, this market will resolve to "Below G1". The resolution source for this market is the NOAA SWPC planetary K-index, available here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Below G1 means the market gives it about 100%.