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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 217–218 | 100% | +56 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <213 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 213–214 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215–216 | 0% | −40 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 219+ | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 477d |  BFBB | <213 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,523 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 477d |  Rasalgethi | 219+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,423 | +$6 +0.1% | 10 |
| 477d | pantomime | 213–214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,024 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 477d |  humbleBaker | 213–214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,366 | +$5 +0.2% | 10 |
| 477d | pantomime | <213 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,052 | +$6 +0.1% | 10 |
| 477d |  AgricultureSecretary | <213 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,482 | +$76 +1.0% | 10 |
| 477d | BFBB | <213 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$25 +1.0% | 10 |
| 477d | BobbyB | <213 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,087 | +$25 +1.2% | 10 |
| 478d | aff3 | <213 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,478 | +$339 +7.6% | 10 |
| 479d | wilhelmm | 219+ | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,190 | −$210 −6.6% | — |
| 479d | Nobody23041 | 219+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$48 +4.2% | 11 |
| 479d | wilhelmm | 219+ | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,247 | +$253 +7.8% | 12 |
This market will resolve according to the number of House members that vote in favor of the next reconciliation bill in the House of Represenantitives by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first final passage vote (not a motion to proceed or a cloture vote), regardless of if the bill is passed. The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 217–218 means the market gives it about 100%.