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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1058d |  aenews-915 | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,013 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 1058d | Just Do It | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 1058d | Katniss Everdeen | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,359 | +$14 +1.0% | 4 |
| 1066d |  Anjun | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyNo55¢ → 100¢ | $1,877 | +$1,536 +82% | 4 |
| 1067d | Notsogood | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,633 | −$1,633 −100% | 4 |
| 1068d |  KAM | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyNo55¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | +$1,150 +82% | 4 |
| 1070d | Argh | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyNo54¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$961 +86% | 4 |
| 1070d |  ImJustKen | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyNo51¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$1,779 +97% | 4 |
| 1071d | Puzzled-Yourself | Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30? | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,194 | −$1,194 −100% | 4 |
On Nov 11, 2023 Iceland declared a state of emergency after an intense string of earthquakes linked to a possible future volcanic eruption. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland has a volcanic eruption between Nov 15 and Nov 30, 11:59 PM Iceland Time (UTC + 0). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be a consensus of media reporting as to whether an eruption occurred.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.