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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 506d | mooseytunes02 fills | U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,447 | −$138 −5.6% | — |
| 507d | nonkenny90 | U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,507 | +$64 +4.3% | 4 |
| 541d | simpleman2 fills | U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$238 +7.7% | 4 |
| 555d | mooseytunes03 fills | U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $9,342 | +$771 +8.3% | 4 |
| 556d | G1222 fills | U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $5,318 | +$563 +11% | 4 |
| 556d | simpleman | U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July? | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | −$217 −17% | — |
| 565d | commeowder | U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July? | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,275 | −$374 −16% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual holding U.S. citizenship, who is in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to El Salvador for the purpose of incarceration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify an incarcerated U.S. citizen must be transferred to El Salvador, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify. Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
