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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | 100% | −2 pts | −10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | +2 pts | −13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 236d |  ccfos420 | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,111 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 236d | weaklei | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,202 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 236d |  LeviGoldberg | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,015 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 236d |  Bepis77 | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,762 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 236d | kitibot | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,693 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 236d |  PajamaSam2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,402 | +$81 +0.7% | 20 |
| 236d | 1115678927 | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | −$15 −1.4% | — |
| 236d | Huludubu | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,985 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 236d | Huludubu2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $6,524 | +$476 +7.3% | 20 |
| 236d | 12100K | March 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,585 | −$22 −1.4% | — |
| 236d | ccc11ttx2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,537 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 236d | Trustinghorse2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,349 | +$80 +1.8% | 20 |
| 236d |  bamesjond2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $16,746 | +$198 +1.2% | 20 |
| 236d |  bolt9ra | February 28 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,416 | −$75 −3.1% | — |
| 236d | darkflamemaster | February 28 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | −$44 −3.1% | — |
| 236d | Mature-Warrior | February 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,516 | −$25 −1.0% | — |
| 236d | ngggrah | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,519 | +$24 +0.4% | 20 |
| 236d | plankton2 | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,139 | +$111 +0.6% | 20 |
| 236d |  pemul1s | February 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,062 | +$74 +1.2% | 20 |
| 236d | PeterEriksson | February 28 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,035 | −$46 −2.2% | — |
| 236d | illiniwek | February 28 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | −$33 −2.2% | — |
| 237d | PeterEriksson | February 28 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,039 | +$42 +2.1% | 20 |
| 237d | Recursi0n | February 28 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | −$156 −12% | — |
| 237d | Icy-Gingerbread | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,726 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 237d | Bepis77 | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | +$23 +1.8% | 20 |
| 237d | Bepis77 | February 28 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,720 | +$194 +3.4% | 20 |
| 237d |  Quantintel | February 28 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $5,663 | −$846 −15% | — |
| 237d | Noams | February 28 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,398 | −$395 −28% | — |
| 237d | 020413633 fills | February 28 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $5,107 | −$1,800 −35% | — |
| 237d | cashy2 fills | February 28 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $7,148 | −$1,552 −22% | — |
| 237d | maxmaxwin | February 28 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$365 +12% | 20 |
| 237d | FlyerOne | February 28 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | −$142 −11% | — |
| 237d | bolt9ra | February 28 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,339 | +$152 +6.5% | 20 |
| 237d | vbv1990 | February 28 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,752 | +$162 +9.2% | 20 |
| 237d | FigSmella | February 28 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,360 | +$576 +11% | 20 |
| 237d | Bulky-Gobbler | February 28 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,905 | −$310 −16% | — |
| 237d | FlyerOne | February 28 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,284 | +$192 +15% | 20 |
| 237d | Quantintel3 fills | February 28 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $6,677 | +$1,507 +23% | 20 |
| 237d | Madshake | February 28 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,231 | −$269 −12% | — |
| 237d | Chief-Conservation | February 28 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,656 | +$519 +11% | 20 |
| 237d |  ProfitMuhammedPBUH | February 28 | SellNo10¢ → 0¢ | $1,234 | +$1,234 +100% | — |
| 237d | ProfitMuhammedPBUH | February 28 | BuyNo23¢ → 0¢ | $2,019 | −$2,019 −100% | 24 |
| 237d | darkflamemaster | February 28 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | +$274 +23% | 20 |
| 237d | courageous | February 28 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | −$359 −33% | — |
| 237d |  WarriorPooh | February 28 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,323 | +$410 +31% | 20 |
| 237d |  TylerTurden | February 28 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,325 | +$275 +21% | 20 |
| 237d | TylerTurden | March 31 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$321 +25% | 20 |
| 237d |  zhupercyclist | February 28 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $2,306 | −$1,149 −50% | — |
| 237d | altaybanyan9512 fills | February 28 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $4,428 | −$1,004 −23% | — |
| 237d | cashy8 fills | February 28 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $12,773 | +$4,439 +35% | 20 |
| 237d | altaybanyan951 | February 28 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,076 | +$232 +7.6% | 20 |
| 237d | aiioi | February 28 | SellNo25¢ → 0¢ | $1,106 | +$1,106 +100% | — |
| 237d | AlexCimmeria | February 28 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | −$371 −26% | — |
| 237d | a3ybae4r2 fills | February 28 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $4,989 | −$1,707 −34% | — |
| 237d | Mature-Warrior | February 28 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$701 +38% | 23 |
| 237d | Skinny-Class2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $2,354 | +$1,226 +52% | 20 |
| 237d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | February 28 | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | −$965 −87% | — |
| 237d | whig2 fills | February 28 | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $3,502 | −$2,207 −63% | — |
| 237d |  de5nuts | February 28 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $2,193 | +$1,368 +62% | 20 |
| 237d |  The-Joker | February 28 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | −$733 −67% | — |
RIPTS14,779 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Qatar is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Qatari territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 28 means the market gives it about 100%.