Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 100% | +55 pts | +80 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 8 | 0% | −11 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 14 | 100% | +46 pts | +90 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 3 | 0% | −4 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 13 | 100% | +84 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 24 | 0% | −38 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 15 | 0% | −3 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 17 | 100% | +48 pts | +38 pts | 93¢ · 100¢ (7¢) | — | ended |
| August 19 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 10 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 4 | 0% | −25 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 9 | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 16 | 0% | −6 pts | −13 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| August 23 | 0% | −1 pts | −22 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| August 29 | 0% | −2 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 20 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · 3¢ | — | ended |
| August 7 | 0% | −2 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 27 | 0% | −2 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 1 | 0% | −2 pts | −40 pts | — · 6¢ | — | ended |
| August 18 | 0% | −9 pts | −41 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| August 26 | 0% | −17 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 28 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · 4¢ | — | ended |
| August 6 | 0% | −2 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 21 | 0% | 0 pts | −23 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| August 22 | 0% | +5 pts | −14 pts | <1¢ · 11¢ (10¢) | — | ended |
| August 25 | 0% | −6 pts | −13 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| August 5 | 0% | −1 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 11 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 30 | 0% | −3 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 12 | 0% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 2 | 0% | −3 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49d | Husky-Boxspring-Eyebrow | August 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,594 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 50d | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,795 | +$75 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 50d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e24 fills | August 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,072 | +$147 +2.1% | 4 |
| 66d | Fearless-Rear-Chitchat | August 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,017 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 69d | August 14 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,638 | +$17 +1.0% | 4 | |
| 69d | 0x6202…f01a | August 14 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,540 | +$38 +1.5% | 4 |
| 69d | August 14 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,322 | +$150 +11% | 4 | |
| 73d | matchamission | August 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,729 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 78d | August 3 | BuyYes75¢ → 0¢ | $2,683 | −$2,683 −100% | 8 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for August 31 means the market gives it about 100%.