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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 661d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,495 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 663d |  vocifer2 fills | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $13,535 | +$369 +2.7% | 4 |
| 666d |  Slowroasted | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 668d |  MLBksRETARD4 fills | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $30,430 | +$190 +0.6% | 4 |
| 670d | vocifer | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,228 | −$23 −1.0% | — |
| 672d | TheBoyBilly... | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | −$18 −1.5% | — |
| 681d |  carp | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,876 | −$83 −1.2% | — |
| 681d |  Car | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,661 | −$27 −1.0% | — |
| 682d | Car | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,982 | +$18 +0.6% | 4 |
| 683d |  Axios | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,519 | +$148 +4.2% | 4 |
| 683d |  MMousse2 fills | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,723 | +$289 +11% | 4 |
On Dec 9 the YouTube channel @PepMangione posted a video titled "The Truth", stating "If you see this, I’m already under arrest." (see https://x.com/AFpost/status/1866229482719244591). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the https://www.youtube.com/@PepMangione YouTube channel is real, i.e. it is proven to be operated by Luigi Mangione or a person/system that he authorized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution date is December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no credible evidence linking Luigi Mangione to the YouTube channel by the resolution date, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
