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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 7 | 100% | — | +76 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +26 pts | — | 90¢ · 96¢ (6¢) | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 138d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,986 | −$14 −0.1% | — | |
| 138d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $218,933 | −$275 −0.1% | — | |
| 138d | Trustinghorse11 fills | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $155,623 | −$156 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | Strident-Export | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $100,698 | −$101 −0.1% | — | |
| 138d | Ordon | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $69,930 | −$70 −0.1% | — | |
| 138d | June 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $31,151 | −$349 −1.1% | — | |
| 138d | 0x93a9…0b88 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,667 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | 0x5449…992b | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,698 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $73,749 | +$134 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 138d | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,683 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 138d | 0xfifr4t0g0vkdkefp | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 138d | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,010 | +$40 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 138d | Mtrades22 fills | June 7 | BuyNo<1¢ | $4,121 | −$4,121 −100% | 31 |
| 138d | Ordon | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,017 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 138d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — | |
| 138d | 0330330339 fills | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $276,878 | +$287 +0.1% | 20 |
| 138d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,995 | −$8 −0.1% | — | |
| 138d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $27,473 | −$28 −0.1% | — | |
| 138d | June 7 | BuyNo1¢ → 0¢ | $6,008 | −$6,008 −100% | 36 | |
| 139d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $79,920 | −$80 −0.1% | — | |
| 139d | yougotme2 fills | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,795 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | MoronKiler | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $760,036 | +$761 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,389 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 140d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $109,672 | −$328 −0.3% | — | |
| 140d | June 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $64,031 | +$938 +1.5% | 20 | |
| 140d | 0xf594…1deb | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0xf594…1deb | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x11be…3bd7 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x11be…3bd7 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x7268…8693 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x7268…8693 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x99ab…b1c5 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x99ab…b1c5 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x47b1…2301 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x47b1…2301 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x6151…d69a | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x6151…d69a | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0xcf9c…4ef8 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0xcf9c…4ef8 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x6250…7eb0 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x6250…7eb0 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x28c9…3fe6 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x28c9…3fe6 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x2650…40ca | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x2650…40ca | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x6d74…db00 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x6d74…db00 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0x6906…4a12 | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,044 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | 0x6906…4a12 | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,049 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | June 7 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $37,325 | +$5,195 +14% | 21 | |
| 140d | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,896 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 140d | Trustinghorse | June 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,758 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d | 8811124 fills | June 7 | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $8,018 | −$5,561 −69% | — |
| 141d | discombobulated-chicken | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,724 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | peter2397842 fills | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,307 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,067 | −$2 −0.2% | — | |
| 141d | Bright-Pinot | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,690 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 142d | June 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $242,546 | −$486 −0.2% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for June 7 means the market gives it about 100%.