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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +25 pts | +41 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 498d | QQQ90003 fills | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | SellYes>99¢ | $6,662 | −$12 −0.2% | — |
| 498d | t0n3 | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,583 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 498d |  cy6erpunker | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 498d |  aenews2 | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 498d |  sigh | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,276 | +$23 +1.0% | 20 |
| 498d |  Car2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $4,977 | +$1,222 +25% | 20 |
| 498d | Sneaky-Sailor | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$315 +30% | 25 |
| 498d |  Malllory | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,466 | +$432 +29% | 20 |
| 498d |  gopfan23 fills | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $6,053 | +$2,535 +42% | 20 |
| 499d | QQQ9000 | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,977 | +$847 +43% | 20 |
| 499d |  mr.ozi | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | SellNo36¢ → 0¢ | $1,072 | +$1,072 +100% | — |
| 500d | mr.ozi2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyNo33¢ → 0¢ | $2,520 | −$2,520 −100% | 23 |
| 500d | homyinv2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $4,833 | +$2,172 +45% | 20 |
| 500d | 0x7853…36d82 fills | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $3,805 | +$1,891 +50% | 20 |
| 501d | 726Edmonchuk2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $6,224 | +$3,204 +51% | 20 |
| 501d |  Alphax | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,489 | +$802 +54% | 20 |
| 508d | OddsOverlord | Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $2,594 | +$2,406 +93% | 20 |
GayPride3,614 shares
WhiteLivesMatter1,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.