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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | +4 pts | +5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114d | wigglew4 fills | June 30 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $10,029 | +$1,585 +16% | 20 |
| 114d |  Saltanas | June 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,807 | −$13 −0.5% | — |
| 116d |  Warren-Buffett | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 117d | Saltanas | June 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$40 +2.0% | 20 |
| 118d |  MrNoItAll | June 30 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,833 | +$64 +3.5% | 21 |
| 119d | 0xbF4d2023824 fills | June 30 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $8,313 | +$742 +8.9% | 20 |
| 120d | Skinny-Class5 fills | June 30 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $10,254 | +$2,424 +24% | 20 |
| 125d | denizz3 fills | June 30 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $9,371 | +$1,159 +12% | 20 |
| 125d | 0xbF4d2023823 fills | June 30 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $5,217 | −$865 −17% | — |
| 130d | kohalacoastgabe2 fills | June 30 | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $3,766 | −$879 −23% | — |
| 131d |  AnnabelleNoirBackend | June 30 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,402 | −$133 −9.4% | — |
| 131d | Skinny-Class | June 30 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$96 −8.7% | — |
| 132d | 0xe72b…3c9c3 fills | June 30 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $5,528 | +$1,686 +30% | 20 |
| 134d | ev1710 | June 30 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$443 +30% | 20 |
| 136d | KrackenSruster2 fills | June 30 | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $2,366 | −$877 −37% | — |
| 136d | guyyyy | June 30 | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,182 | −$1,182 −100% | 20 |
| 136d | rounders2026 | June 30 | BuyYes33¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 138d | 0x64c28c0EEf3514b4 | June 30 | BuyYes43¢ → 0¢ | $1,363 | −$1,363 −100% | 20 |
| 138d | kohalacoastgabe2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,018 +34% | 20 |
| 144d | LJa7io23MCv954j | June 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,526 | +$456 +10% | 20 |
| 153d |  paddaa2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$631 +20% | 20 |
| 174d | M2sx92kljs424 fills | May 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $4,875 | +$1,282 +26% | 20 |
| 174d | M2sx92kljs42 | June 30 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$616 +34% | 20 |
| 179d | Skinny-Class | April 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,473 | −$27 −1.8% | — |
| 180d | Skinny-Class2 fills | April 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,627 | +$173 +6.6% | 20 |
| 184d | SamibossOG | April 30 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,398 | +$110 +7.9% | 20 |
| 191d |  CaptainCoinflip3 fills | April 15 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,602 | +$221 +2.6% | 20 |
| 191d | Huludubu3 fills | April 15 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,389 | +$214 +4.0% | 20 |
| 193d | 0xbF4d202382 | April 15 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | −$18 −1.6% | — |
| 193d | JustinMurray8742 | April 15 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,338 | −$32 −2.4% | — |
| 193d |  Practicemakeperfect | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,676 | +$247 +5.3% | 21 |
| 195d |  TheSwedishWolf | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$69 +5.5% | 20 |
| 196d | RachelJackson9761 | May 31 | SellNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | −$489 −41% | — |
| 196d | saitamaofficial | April 30 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,346 | +$449 +33% | 20 |
| 196d | RachelJackson9761 | May 31 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | +$463 +37% | 20 |
| 198d | dudukos | June 30 | SellNo65¢ → 100¢ | $2,936 | −$1,564 −53% | — |
| 199d |  WallStreetKlller | April 15 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,353 | −$84 −6.2% | — |
| 199d | 0xbF4d202382 | April 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,656 | +$164 +6.2% | 20 |
| 199d | slowbro | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,469 | +$83 +5.6% | 20 |
| 199d | pakukudolphi | April 30 | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $1,993 | +$2,008 +101% | 20 |
| 201d |  Investnow2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes69¢ → 0¢ | $4,612 | −$4,612 −100% | 20 |
| 205d | M2sx92kljs42 | April 15 | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,466 | +$967 +66% | 20 |
| 205d | M2sx92kljs42 | April 30 | BuyNo36¢ → 100¢ | $1,233 | +$2,198 +178% | 21 |
| 205d | denizz | April 15 | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,107 | −$1,107 −100% | 20 |
| 205d | Celebrated-Apricot | April 30 | SellYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,108 | +$1,108 +100% | — |
| 206d |  duderr | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,619 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d |  0xbb39ba863319281427a482c8714ffdf69cb7ee82 fills | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,017 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 206d |  polio123 | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 207d | Dr.finkel | March 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,827 | −$173 −4.5% | — |
| 207d | dopeusername | March 31 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,036 | −$243 −12% | — |
| 207d | SK412 | March 31 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | −$214 −20% | — |
| 207d | Dr.finkel | March 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,600 | +$408 +16% | 24 |
| 208d | Imaginary-Independence | June 30 | BuyYes90¢ → 0¢ | $1,528 | −$1,528 −100% | 20 |
| 208d | Tart-BehaviorNew account | March 31 | SellYes30¢ → 0¢ | $1,225 | +$1,225 +100% | — |
| 209d |  MEPP | March 31 | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,626 | +$1,101 +68% | 25 |
| 209d | Tart-BehaviorNew account | March 31 | BuyYes61¢ → 0¢ | $2,499 | −$2,499 −100% | 37 |
| 209d |  Wickier | March 31 | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $4,094 | −$4,094 −100% | 27 |
| 209d | Adept-Bitten | March 31 | BuyYes62¢ → 0¢ | $1,224 | −$1,224 −100% | 25 |
| 210d |  scottilicious | June 30 | BuyYes93¢ → 0¢ | $1,215 | −$1,215 −100% | 20 |
| 210d |  Whylik | June 30 | BuyYes83¢ → 0¢ | $1,597 | −$1,597 −100% | 20 |
toutiege6,200 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for June 30 means the market gives it about 0%.