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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 16 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 17 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 18 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 19 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 21 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 22 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 23 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No Strike | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 402d | tanazana | September 16 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,516 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 402d | cashy5 fills | September 16 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,988 | +$174 +1.3% | 20 |
| 402d | greengasper | September 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | ALLOWMETOSHOWU1 | September 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,470 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 402d | greengasper | September 16 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 402d |  Kimomo | September 16 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,398 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 402d |  ILOVEYOUBABYZZ3 fills | September 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,141 | +$30 +0.2% | 20 |
| 402d |  roadmapper2 fills | September 16 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,929 | +$110 +0.6% | 20 |
| 402d |  Dumbeldor20034 fills | September 16 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $7,800 | +$678 +8.7% | 21 |
| 403d |  0.0.000 | September 16 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,579 | −$488 −11% | — |
| 403d | JustABet | September 16 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,523 | +$505 +14% | 21 |
| 403d | tanazana | September 16 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$1,023 +41% | 22 |
This market will resolve according to the first day ET Israel next initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate. This market will resolve to "No strike" if no qualifying strike is conducted by September 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 16 means the market gives it about 100%.