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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17 | 100% | +46 pts | — | 85¢ · 86¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 100% | +33 pts | — | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 371d |  WhiteLivesMatter | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,296 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | rwo | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d |  lkdjwklva | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,245 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | alex562 | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d |  SCHIZO-RELAY-PAYS-ME3 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,205 | +$28 +0.2% | 20 |
| 371d | Hull | October 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,761 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | 033033033 | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,991 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d |  Totenkopf | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,824 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d |  Infringe | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,340 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | Hull | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,487 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d |  0xdc3E831cad | October 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,006 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 371d |  GayPride2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,309 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 371d |  JaidenAnimations | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,156 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | Memorable-Purity | October 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,756 | −$33 −0.4% | — |
| 371d | Memorable-Purity | October 17 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $22,461 | −$227 −1.0% | — |
| 371d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,775 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | rwo | October 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,646 | +$47 +1.0% | 20 |
| 371d |  TeemuPukki | October 17 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$37 +3.2% | 20 |
| 371d | TeemuPukki2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,694 | +$47 +1.7% | 20 |
| 371d | affs20791 | October 17 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,709 | +$283 +17% | 20 |
| 371d | denizz | October 17 | BuyNo20¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 371d | BAZIMAN | October 17 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,782 | +$391 +22% | 20 |
| 371d | Memorable-Purity | October 17 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$276 +22% | 24 |
| 371d | UpTight | October 17 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$269 +23% | 20 |
| 371d | trombtvoeimom | October 17 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,531 | +$170 +11% | 20 |
| 371d | JaidenAnimations | October 17 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$139 +14% | 20 |
| 371d |  pup1 | October 31 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,264 | +$384 +17% | 20 |
| 371d | denizz2 fills | October 17 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $10,061 | +$6,099 +61% | 20 |
| 371d |  4182 | October 17 | BuyYes42¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$2,082 +139% | 21 |
| 371d | slifsh | October 17 | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $5,451 | −$5,451 −100% | 20 |
| 371d | SCHIZO-RELAY-PAYS-ME4 fills | October 17 | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $7,344 | +$8,307 +113% | 21 |
| 371d | SCHIZO-RELAY-PAYS-ME | October 17 | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $5,541 | +$5,541 +100% | — |
| 371d | BAZIMAN | October 17 | SellYes19¢ → 100¢ | $1,782 | −$7,654 −429% | — |
| 371d | RocoSaki | October 17 | SellYes21¢ → 100¢ | $3,736 | −$13,861 −371% | — |
| 371d | Kev69 | October 17 | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 371d |  Dropper3 fills | October 17 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $6,714 | +$3,422 +51% | 20 |
| 371d | IbnKhaldun | October 17 | SellNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,327 | +$1,327 +100% | — |
| 371d | ganatalak2 fills | October 17 | BuyNo46¢ → 0¢ | $2,707 | −$2,707 −100% | 21 |
| 371d | SCHIZO-RELAY-PAYS-ME | October 17 | BuyNo34¢ → 0¢ | $1,664 | −$1,664 −100% | 22 |
| 371d | Nebula-Croissant | October 17 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,801 | −$1,199 −67% | — |
| 371d |  MisTKy3 | October 17 | BuyNo39¢ → 0¢ | $1,701 | −$1,701 −100% | 21 |
| 371d | Dropper2 fills | October 17 | BuyNo30¢ → 0¢ | $3,586 | −$3,586 −100% | 25 |
| 371d | UpTight | October 17 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,261 | −$521 −41% | — |
| 371d | RocoSaki | October 17 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,217 | +$104 +8.5% | 20 |
| 371d | Mariobelt | October 17 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | −$21 −2.0% | — |
| 371d | Giving-Mortality2 fills | October 17 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $7,043 | −$442 −6.3% | — |
| 371d | Cold-BuzzNew account | October 17 | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $1,250 | −$1,250 −100% | 26 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil between October 14, 6:00 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent and The Guardian may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 17 means the market gives it about 100%.