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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −5 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 434d | JimmyG48 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,026 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 434d |  Dumbeldor2003 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,196 | +$24 +1.1% | 20 |
| 435d | gw8 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | −$46 −4.4% | — |
| 435d |  yrcare | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$45 +4.2% | 21 |
| 436d | mihaipaduret15 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | −$49 −4.7% | — |
| 436d | salgoat2 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,499 | −$133 −5.3% | — |
| 436d | deepred | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,991 | −$104 −5.2% | — |
| 436d |  CCPig | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$134 +5.4% | 21 |
| 436d | Mamongadelete | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,991 | +$112 +5.6% | 21 |
| 436d | sdrkfodj4 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $11,587 | +$2,335 +20% | 21 |
| 436d |  yasuho | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,394 | −$119 −8.5% | — |
| 436d | AceEz | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,246 | −$52 −4.2% | — |
| 437d |  nebuca | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,352 | −$150 −11% | — |
| 437d | zizar3 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,926 | −$184 −9.5% | — |
| 437d |  TarasShevchenko3 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $6,584 | +$6,644 +101% | 20 |
| 438d | Monocular | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$572 +29% | 24 |
| 438d | TexMexTRex2 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo54¢ → 100¢ | $6,500 | +$5,532 +85% | 20 |
| 438d | Nutritious-FrameworkNew account | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $7,939 | +$4,922 +62% | 35 |
| 440d | Ronenio | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,701 | −$576 −34% | — |
| 440d | Andrew1898 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,474 | +$518 +21% | 21 |
| 440d | yasuho | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$336 +34% | 22 |
| 440d | deepred | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,472 | +$624 +42% | 22 |
| 442d | Theninja11 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $1,590 | −$1,590 −100% | 22 |
| 442d |  NemTortenikSohaSemmi | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $2,608 | +$1,729 +66% | 22 |
| 442d | 431105 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyYes73¢ → 0¢ | $31,285 | −$31,285 −100% | 20 |
| 443d | 431103 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellYes42¢ → 0¢ | $10,132 | +$10,132 +100% | — |
| 443d | Ronenio | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,316 | +$1,316 +100% | — |
| 443d | Sorrymissjackson3 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyYes76¢ → 0¢ | $9,796 | −$9,796 −100% | 20 |
| 444d |  1banana2 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellYes71¢ → 0¢ | $3,203 | +$3,203 +100% | — |
| 444d |  maxpain99 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,107 | −$1,107 −100% | 20 |
| 444d | 1banana2 fills | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $3,501 | −$3,501 −100% | 20 |
| 444d |  roadmapper | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellYes69¢ → 0¢ | $3,153 | +$3,153 +100% | — |
| 445d | Pleasant-Passenger | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | SellYes69¢ → 0¢ | $3,248 | +$3,248 +100% | — |
| 446d | 0406 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,050 | −$1,050 −100% | 20 |
| 447d | dani71 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,198 | −$1,198 −100% | 20 |
Illuminatiboi1,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate between July 30 and August 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemeni territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.