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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 602d | aviato | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 602d |  MEPP | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,168 | −$33 −1.5% | — |
| 605d | NELF3 fills | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,177 | +$454 +7.3% | 20 |
| 606d | HLB-377 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$92 +6.4% | 20 |
| 607d | jabberwocky | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,533 | +$161 +4.5% | 20 |
| 607d | denizz | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,654 | +$295 +11% | 21 |
| 610d | Lakshmi | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,297 | +$208 +9.0% | 20 |
| 614d | MEPP | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March? | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,157 | +$346 +30% | 20 |
President Donald Trump said on Monday that if all the hostages held in Gaza are not returned by Saturday at noon he would propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and letting "all hell break loose." (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-gaza-ceasefire-should-end-saturday-if-hostages-not-released-2025-02-10/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
