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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10% | — | +1 pts | 3¢ · 16¢ (13¢) | — | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54d | nvdaqqq6 fills | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30? | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $44,272 | −$11,818 −27% | — |
| 54d | nvdaqqq6 fills | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $53,413 | +$2,697 +5.0% | 4 |
| 108d | Wowiwow | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,646 | +$83 +5.0% | 4 |
| 123d | Poory | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,213 | +$31 +2.6% | 4 |
| 125d |  Warren-Buffett | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,883 | +$162 +4.2% | 4 |
| 141d | Nippy-Mobility | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | −$68 −6.0% | — |
| 141d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,383 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 143d |  CaptainCoinflip | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,402 | +$160 +11% | 5 |
| 143d | Major-Moat | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | +$215 +19% | 5 |
| 144d | Coolmanx | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,430 | +$253 +18% | 5 |
| 145d | mk83 | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 146d | Sticky-Closing | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$486 +48% | 4 |
TheJewishHammer17 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 10¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 10%.