Polymarket · WorldClosed
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | −2 pts | +20 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
Jair Bolsonaro was recently found guilty by 4 of 5 justices on the Brazilian supreme court in charges related to a coup attempt. Donald Trump has referred to the trial as a "witch hunt" and implied that sanctions could be leveled as a consequence. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/11/bolsonaro-supreme-court-conviction-00558165 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against any Brazilian Supreme Federal Court Justice between September 11, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions on the country or broader institutions (e.g., sanctions that target Brazil, the Brazilian government, etc.) will not qualify, however sanctions that target the Brazilian Supreme Court in particular will. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing qualifying sanctions within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.