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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor majority | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Labor minority | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberal–National majority | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberal–National minority | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 529d |  JJo4 fills | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,415 | +$38 +0.1% | 4 |
| 529d |  Astera3 fills | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,434 | +$20 +0.2% | 4 |
| 530d | Jac411 | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 4 |
| 530d |  WarthofConnie | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $1,989 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 530d |  Wloczega5 fills | Labor majority | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $17,030 | −$1,939 −11% | — |
| 531d | jeneeZooote | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,344 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 531d | SweetChariot2 fills | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,077 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 531d |  SwissMiss | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $10,710 | −$43 −0.4% | — |
| 531d | SwissMiss | Labor minority | SellNo>99¢ | $11,088 | −$22 −0.2% | — |
| 533d | QuarterlyHugChild | Labor majority | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,838 | −$294 −3.0% | — |
| 533d | QuarterlyHugChild | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,122 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 533d | IntenselyIsDoctor | Labor majority | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,180 | −$60 −0.6% | — |
| 533d | IntenselyIsDoctor | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,230 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 533d | ThenCloseLawn | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $10,586 | −$52 −0.5% | — |
| 533d | ThenCloseLawn | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,628 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 533d | eithfi4 fills | Labor majority | SellYes100¢ | $22,665 | −$114 −0.5% | — |
| 533d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | Labor majority | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,544 | +$25 +0.6% | 4 |
| 534d | nonkenny90 | Liberal–National majority | SellNo>99¢ | $1,263 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 534d | 0x65c65De373A10e5f319f72 | Labor majority | SellYes100¢ | $1,269 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 534d | Kevindoto | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,463 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 535d | dogedaddy-407 | Liberal–National minority | SellNo>99¢ | $2,619 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 535d | jeo7 | Labor majority | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $31,019 | −$198 −0.6% | — |
| 536d | Astera | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $5,547 | −$17 −0.3% | — |
| 536d |  nnimrodd | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $1,605 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 536d | Astera | Labor minority | SellNo>99¢ | $1,501 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 536d | GregoryR | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,085 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 536d | goldingboy | Liberal–National minority | SellNo>99¢ | $32,402 | −$32 −0.1% | — |
| 536d |  ScamWick9 fills | Labor minority | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,956 | +$40 +0.1% | 4 |
| 536d |  andy29 | Liberal–National majority | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 537d | noslajre | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $1,298 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 537d | clin2000 | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $1,450 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 537d | ekib | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $8,248 | −$25 −0.3% | — |
| 538d | Winninghumbly3 fills | Labor majority | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,463 | +$137 +1.2% | 4 |
| 538d | Doggieson | Labor majority | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,616 | −$37 −0.6% | — |
| 538d |  slothtastic | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,219 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 538d | kari0909 | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $1,085 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 538d | kari0909 | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,087 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 538d | tangdi | Labor majority | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,097 | −$26 −0.8% | — |
| 538d | tarbs | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $31,986 | −$109 −0.3% | — |
| 538d | tarbs2 fills | Labor majority | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,217 | +$27 +0.1% | 4 |
| 538d | uppers | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $3,576 | −$11 −0.3% | — |
| 538d | Geigk091 | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $1,291 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 538d | SweetChariot | Liberal–National majority | SellNo>99¢ | $6,865 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 538d | cigarettes15 fills | Liberal–National majority | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,710 | +$155 +0.4% | 4 |
| 538d | cigarettes12 fills | Labor minority | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $33,739 | +$5,319 +16% | 6 |
| 538d | ScamWick5 fills | Labor majority | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $22,335 | +$2,537 +11% | 7 |
| 538d | wokerjoesleeper5 fills | Labor minority | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $9,984 | +$2,238 +22% | 7 |
| 538d | wokerjoesleeper4 fills | Liberal–National majority | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,429 | +$37 +0.4% | 4 |
| 538d | wokerjoesleeper5 fills | Liberal–National minority | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,389 | +$192 +1.7% | 4 |
| 538d | cigarettes16 fills | Liberal–National minority | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $33,452 | +$554 +1.7% | 4 |
| 538d | ScamWick | Liberal–National minority | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,330 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 538d | ScamWick2 fills | Liberal–National majority | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,543 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
| 538d | Peaceful-Scarf | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $1,071 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 538d | Mrhack210291 | Liberal–National minority | SellNo>99¢ | $8,163 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 538d | moneymaker223232 | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $2,490 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 538d |  wolfrussian | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $1,664 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 538d | ryzt | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $2,205 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 538d | Jerry42425 fills | Labor majority | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $77,654 | −$3,288 −4.2% | — |
| 538d |  BlackSky123 | Labor majority | SellYes>99¢ | $2,416 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 538d |  ShatteredHalo | Labor minority | SellNo>99¢ | $3,600 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
Alla2056250 sharesThe 2025 Australian federal election will be held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. This market will resolve to the first governing party that forms the Australian Government after the next federal election and is able to command confidence in the House of Representatives. The government will be considered formed once the Prime Minister is formally appointed by the Governor-General under non-caretaker circumstances and ministers are sworn in. If no government is formed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or if a new federal election is officially called before that date without a government having been formed under the criteria above, this market will resolve to "Hung Parliament." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Australian government. Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Labor majority means the market gives it about 100%.