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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro - Venezuela President | 100% | +83 pts | +81 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 67d |
| Macron - France President | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 0% | −4 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader | 0% | −5 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 0% | −5 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Albanese - Australia PM | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Newsom - California Governor | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Milei - Argentina President | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Starmer - UK PM | 0% | −5 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Trump - USA President | 0% | −3 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 0% | −6 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Putin - Russia President | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| al-Assad - Syria President | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Lecornu - France PM | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | 0% | −7 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Schoof - Netherlands PM | 0% | −40 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| None before 2027 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Merz - German Chancellor | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 294d |  RecursiveDragon | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,661 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | rwo | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,329 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d |  classified | Schoof - Netherlands PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,038 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d |  thegreengem | Maduro - Venezuela President | SellYes>99¢ | $7,262 | −$15 −0.2% | — |
| 294d | MAXMSTRMNN | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,142 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | Vital-Mathematics | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,857 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d |  GollumGekko | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | classified | Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,344 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d |  Chims2 fills | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,943 | +$9 +0.3% | 4 |
| 294d | Lean-Pelt | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,200 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | GollumGekko | Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,036 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d |  Tigerofthehood | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,434 | +$90 +0.3% | 4 |
| 294d | classified | Takaichi - Japan PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,482 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | classified | Lecornu - France PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,694 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d |  jesterthegoose | Maduro - Venezuela President | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,036 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 294d | classified | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,034 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | Nofren | Maduro - Venezuela President | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 294d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Abbas - President of Palestine | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Schoof - Netherlands PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Newsom - California Governor | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Macron - France President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Putin - Russia President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | thegreengem4 fills | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $12,184 | +$198 +1.6% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Starmer - UK PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Milei - Argentina President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Albanese - Australia PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Lecornu - France PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Sánchez - Spanish PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Merz - German Chancellor | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Trump - USA President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Lula da Silva - Brazil President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Takaichi - Japan PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | flow-trader-at-optiver | Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes2 fills | Takaichi - Japan PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,461 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes2 fills | Lecornu - France PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,453 | +$14 +0.4% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes2 fills | Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,462 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes2 fills | Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,462 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes2 fills | Starmer - UK PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,462 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes | Erdoğan - Türkiye President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,558 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,558 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes | Schoof - Netherlands PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,558 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes | Sánchez - Spanish PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,904 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,904 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes | Merz - German Chancellor | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,904 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | cigarettes | Lula da Silva - Brazil President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,904 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 294d | jesterthegoose | Maduro - Venezuela President | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | +$34 +3.1% | 4 |
| 294d |  XAE12Archangel2 fills | None before 2027 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,345 | +$13 +0.3% | 4 |
| 294d | XAE12Archangel | Takaichi - Japan PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 320d |  AgricultureSecretary | al-Assad - Syria President | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,701 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
Fartard10,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Maduro - Venezuela President means the market gives it about 100%.