| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 86,139 | 67¢ → 87¢ | $75,070 | +$17,121 +30% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 8d | No | 34,025 | 80¢ → 82¢ | $27,730 | +$602 +2.2% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 23,257 | 95¢ → 99¢ | $22,909 | +$819 +3.7% |
| Iran leadership change by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 21,236 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $20,918 | +$336 +1.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Ends in 14h | Yes | 19,864 | 95¢ → 99¢ | $19,715 | +$868 +4.6% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 16,990 | 91¢ → 91¢ | $15,419 | +$7 +0.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 33,078 | 41¢ → 44¢ | $14,554 | +$1,144 +8.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 16,106 | 84¢ → 86¢ | $13,771 | +$312 +2.3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | Yes | 20,718 | 57¢ → 61¢ | $12,534 | +$648 +5.5% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 11,901 | 93¢ → 94¢ | $11,146 | +$85 +0.8% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 39,152 | 19¢ → 20¢ | $7,635 | +$98 +1.3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 7,628 | 99¢ → >99¢ | $7,601 | +$63 +0.8% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 17d | Yes | 9,265 | 78¢ → 79¢ | $7,273 | +$46 +0.6% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 7,220 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $7,029 | +$57 +0.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 7,001 | 94¢ → 96¢ | $6,707 | +$135 +2.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | Yes | 9,406 | 71¢ → 71¢ | $6,679 | +$20 +0.3% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 55,330 | 21¢ → 12¢ | $6,363 | −$5,222 −45% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 9,878 | 62¢ → 64¢ | $6,322 | +$224 +3.7% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 5,954 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $5,736 | −$8 −0.1% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 5,344 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $5,125 | +$174 +3.5% |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Ends in 17d | No | 4,904 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $4,857 | +$164 +3.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 4,763 | 99¢ → 99¢ | $4,725 | +$11 +0.2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 23,716 | 19¢ → 19¢ | $4,388 | −$176 −3.9% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | No | 10,000 | 38¢ → 38¢ | $3,750 | −$50 −1.3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 4,575 | 66¢ → 67¢ | $3,042 | +$21 +0.7% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d | Yes | 57,908 | 3¢ → 5¢ | $2,866 | +$1,077 +60% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 5,778 | 42¢ → 50¢ | $2,860 | +$460 +19% |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 2,513 | 95¢ → 96¢ | $2,416 | +$41 +1.7% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 2,324 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $2,295 | +$48 +2.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 31,829 | 6¢ → 7¢ | $2,069 | +$102 +5.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Ends in 4d | No | 50,576 | 6¢ → 4¢ | $2,048 | −$1,010 −33% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 2,102 | 99¢ → 97¢ | $2,048 | −$25 −1.2% |
| Trump out as President before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 2,000 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $1,921 | +$3 +0.2% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 1,980 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $1,914 | −$5 −0.3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Ends in 22d | Yes | 2,469 | 65¢ → 69¢ | $1,691 | +$97 +6.1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 6,675 | 23¢ → 25¢ | $1,635 | +$100 +6.5% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Ends in 36d | Yes | 2,969 | 46¢ → 54¢ | $1,588 | +$209 +15% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,277 | 96¢ → 97¢ | $1,236 | +$15 +1.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 9,466 | 13¢ → 12¢ | $1,089 | −$175 −14% |
| Iran leadership change by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 15,635 | 6¢ → 7¢ | $1,016 | +$85 +9.1% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Ends in 14d | Yes | 11,999 | 8¢ → 8¢ | $996 | +$79 +8.6% |
| Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 1,000 | 99¢ → 100¢ | $995 | +$3 +0.3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 20,000 | 5¢ → 5¢ | $900 | −$100 −10.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 7d | No | 11,793 | 15¢ → 7¢ | $826 | −$921 −53% |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Ends in 10d | Yes | 771 | 90¢ → 91¢ | $697 | +$7 +1.0% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 5,411 | 10¢ → 13¢ | $676 | +$135 +25% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 599 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $594 | +$7 +1.2% |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Ends in 103d | No | 584 | 97¢ → >99¢ | $581 | +$16 +2.9% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 1,060 | 58¢ → 47¢ | $493 | −$122 −20% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 480 | 76¢ → 96¢ | $463 | +$98 +27% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 451 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $448 | +$3 +0.8% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberEnds in 13d | Something | 7,577 | 5¢ → 5¢ | $379 | −$31 −7.5% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Ends in 74d | No | 2,030 | 16¢ → 17¢ | $345 | +$17 +5.2% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d | Yes | 19,369 | 4¢ → 2¢ | $339 | −$455 −57% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,878 | 6¢ → 6¢ | $268 | −$24 −8.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 1,257 | 19¢ → 20¢ | $245 | +$6 +2.6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 11d | No | 899 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $130 | −$8 −5.9% |
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 130 | 98¢ → >99¢ | $130 | +$2 +1.6% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 365 | 35¢ → 31¢ | $111 | −$15 −12% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 5d | No | 1,781 | 12¢ → 6¢ | $98 | −$116 −54% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 104 | 72¢ → 81¢ | $84 | +$9 +12% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 52,941 | 20¢ → <1¢ | $79 | −$10,509 −99% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 8,292 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $62 | −$27 −31% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Ends in 14h | No | 6,500 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $62 | −$70 −53% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 17d | No | 174 | 25¢ → 22¢ | $37 | −$6 −14% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 18,608 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $28 | −$25 −47% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 86 | 28¢ → 32¢ | $27 | +$3 +12% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 7,699 | 20¢ → <1¢ | $27 | −$1,513 −98% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?Ends in 3d | No | 1,111 | 3¢ → 2¢ | $27 | −$8 −23% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 424 | 4¢ → 3¢ | $13 | −$4 −23% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 81¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$2 +20% |
| Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 19,262 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $10 | −$525 −98% |
| Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 19,262 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $10 | −$525 −98% |
| Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 19,262 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $10 | −$525 −98% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 5,665 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $8 | −$3 −24% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 14 | 24¢ → 20¢ | $3 | −$1 −17% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 3 | 15¢ → 86¢ | $2 | +$2 +470% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4 | 15¢ → 13¢ | $1 | −$0 −13% |
