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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 100% | +1 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pause–Cut–Cut | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 218d | BrightStars | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,345 | +$5 +0.1% | 10 |
| 218d | BrightStars | Cut–Pause–Cut | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,014 | +$14 +0.1% | 10 |
| 222d |  elmcap22 fills | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,798 | +$33 +0.6% | 10 |
| 222d | influenz.eth5 fills | Cut–Pause–Cut | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,964 | +$34 +0.6% | 10 |
| 223d | refusooor2 fills | Other | SellNo>99¢ | $4,048 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 223d | refusooor | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,052 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 224d | influenz.eth6 fills | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,530 | +$12 +0.1% | 10 |
| 224d |  debased | Other | SellNo>99¢ | $2,508 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 224d | 1234ab14 fills | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $25,669 | +$231 +0.9% | 10 |
| 224d | 1234ab | Cut–Pause–Cut | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$12 +0.6% | 10 |
| 225d |  BrightTiger | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,960 | +$40 +1.0% | 10 |
| 228d | 1234ab2 fills | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,984 | +$16 +0.4% | 10 |
| 229d |  Istaroth2 fills | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,647 | +$54 +1.5% | 10 |
| 229d | REHTRGREGREG | Other | SellNo>99¢ | $2,510 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 229d | TRETRYRTRETERTGREGER | Other | SellNo>99¢ | $2,504 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 230d | debased | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,102 | +$106 +1.7% | 10 |
| 230d | rated2 fills | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,102 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 230d | Innocent-Terrapin | Cut–Pause–Cut | BuyYes4¢ → 0¢ | $1,025 | −$1,025 −100% | 10 |
| 241d | castle72 | Cut–Pause–Cut | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | −$48 −4.2% | — |
| 243d | Innocent-Terrapin2 fills | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,508 | +$185 +5.3% | 10 |
| 249d | immanuelcan | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,846 | +$289 +7.5% | 10 |
| 251d | Innocent-Terrapin | Cut–Pause–Pause | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $7,209 | −$801 −11% | — |
| 252d | Henry.0 | Cut–Pause–Pause | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,209 | −$337 −11% | — |
| 253d | Skaliz | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,211 | +$579 +11% | 10 |
| 253d | skylove | Cut–Pause–Pause | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $4,503 | −$1,197 −27% | — |
| 253d | singaporesling | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyNo20¢ → 0¢ | $1,252 | −$1,252 −100% | 11 |
| 259d |  LinaBell | Cut–Pause–Pause | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | −$131 −12% | — |
| 260d | skylove2 fills | Cut–Pause–Pause | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,130 | +$570 +11% | 10 |
| 267d |  fffffz | Cut–Cut–Cut | SellNo>99¢ | $14,643 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 278d | allen111 | Cut–Cut–Cut | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $12,385 | +$203 +1.6% | 10 |
| 283d | podairpod | Cut–Cut–Cut | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,683 | −$50 −3.0% | — |
| 286d | fffffz2 fills | Cut–Cut–Cut | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $37,036 | +$986 +2.7% | 10 |
| 295d |  HolyMoses7 | Cut–Cut–Cut | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,004 | +$205 +6.8% | 10 |
| 314d | podairpod | Cut–Cut–Cut | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,367 | +$111 +8.1% | 10 |
| 316d |  AgricultureSecretary | Pause–Cut–Cut | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,256 | +$10 +0.2% | 10 |
| 316d | AgricultureSecretary | Pause–Cut–Pause | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,267 | +$6 +0.1% | 10 |
| 316d | AgricultureSecretary | Pause–Pause–Cut | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,917 | +$7 +0.1% | 10 |
| 316d | AgricultureSecretary | Pause–Pause–Pause | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,556 | +$7 +0.1% | 10 |
| 317d | yhtrgreg | Pause–Pause–Pause | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,300 | +$4 +0.3% | 10 |
| 317d | gregrreg | Pause–Pause–Pause | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,300 | +$4 +0.3% | 10 |
| 317d | regrgrvregervrehtegbvr | Pause–Pause–Pause | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,300 | +$4 +0.3% | 10 |
| 318d |  JanetMoulin | Cut–Cut–Cut | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$71 +7.1% | 10 |
| 329d | 0x97cc…bbbf | Cut–Cut–Cut | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,288 | +$112 +4.9% | 10 |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Cut–Pause–Pause means the market gives it about 100%.