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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12–13% | 100% | +2 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <8% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 8–9% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 9–10% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 10–11% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 11–12% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 13%+ | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 458d | haraya5 fills | 13%+ | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,983 | −$647 −6.5% | — |
| 458d | welshpottingmachine | 13%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,434 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 458d | welshpottingmachine | 12–13% | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,575 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 458d |  1800stopgambling | 12–13% | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,327 | +$5 +0.2% | 10 |
| 458d | InsiderrrZ5 fills | 13%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $10,160 | +$376 +3.7% | 10 |
| 458d | InsiderrrZ2 fills | 12–13% | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,576 | +$248 +9.6% | 10 |
| 459d |  arjennnnn2 fills | 12–13% | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,512 | +$77 +1.7% | 10 |
| 460d |  Cookedtan | 13%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,315 | +$47 +2.0% | 10 |
| 460d | Cookedtan | 8–9% | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,359 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 460d | WangHuningismydad3 fills | 12–13% | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $7,780 | +$494 +6.3% | 10 |
| 460d | KIKIKI | 12–13% | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,293 | +$29 +2.2% | 10 |
| 461d | WangHuningismydad | 13%+ | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,043 | −$74 −3.6% | — |
| 461d | WangHuningismydad | 12–13% | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,743 | −$99 −3.6% | — |
| 461d | Kapii | 8–9% | SellNo>99¢ | $7,879 | −$15 −0.2% | — |
| 462d | eric7774 fills | 13%+ | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $17,710 | −$1,360 −7.7% | — |
| 462d | eric7772 fills | 12–13% | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $15,438 | −$1,151 −7.5% | — |
| 463d |  Naichli | 12–13% | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,712 | −$98 −3.6% | — |
| 465d | haraya3 fills | 12–13% | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $6,892 | −$737 −11% | — |
| 465d |  Funfzig | 11–12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,168 | +$17 +0.1% | 10 |
| 465d | almost-never2 fills | 12–13% | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $15,014 | +$1,513 +10% | 10 |
| 465d | petrovic1914 | 12–13% | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 10 |
| 465d | slamjampeter2 fills | 13%+ | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $7,177 | +$556 +7.7% | 10 |
| 465d |  0xheavy888 | 12–13% | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $9,892 | +$436 +4.4% | 10 |
| 465d | cigarettes8 fills | 11–12% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,717 | +$150 +0.8% | 10 |
| 465d | cigarettes5 fills | 13%+ | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $10,451 | +$1,575 +15% | 10 |
| 465d | Naichli | 12–13% | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,413 | +$269 +19% | 10 |
| 466d | MonthlySubs | 12–13% | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $3,125 | −$640 −20% | — |
| 466d | Melody626 | 12–13% | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,153 | +$410 +19% | 10 |
| 466d | rabs | 12–13% | BuyNo15¢ → 0¢ | $1,029 | −$1,029 −100% | 10 |
| 466d | deprecated-user | 12–13% | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,498 | −$617 −18% | — |
| 467d | takedowns2 fills | 11–12% | SellNo>99¢ | $4,341 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 467d | takedowns2 fills | 11–12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,346 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 468d | cigarettes | <8% | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,485 | +$5 +0.1% | 10 |
| 469d | takedowns | <8% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,295 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 469d | takedowns | <8% | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 469d | Naichli | 13%+ | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,365 | +$135 +9.9% | 10 |
| 469d | haraya4 fills | 13%+ | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $8,282 | +$1,058 +13% | 10 |
| 469d | Marketpoll4 fills | 13%+ | BuyYes13¢ → 0¢ | $5,358 | −$5,358 −100% | 22 |
| 469d | Retired-Davis | 13%+ | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $13,928 | +$1,092 +7.8% | 10 |
| 469d | JoeBlack01 | 12–13% | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$148 +9.9% | 10 |
| 470d | WangHuningismydad3 fills | 13%+ | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $3,908 | +$1,079 +28% | 10 |
| 470d | eric7775 fills | 12–13% | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $14,101 | +$1,895 +13% | 10 |
| 470d | eric7774 fills | 13%+ | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $17,746 | +$2,256 +13% | 10 |
| 470d | Marketpoll | 12–13% | BuyNo11¢ → 0¢ | $1,115 | −$1,115 −100% | 11 |
| 471d | petrovic1914 | 13%+ | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,720 | −$280 −16% | — |
| 472d | haraya3 fills | 12–13% | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $6,548 | +$1,081 +17% | 10 |
| 472d | deprecated-user | 12–13% | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$353 +18% | 10 |
| 472d | Kapii2 fills | 13%+ | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $5,017 | +$996 +20% | 10 |
| 472d | 11122 | <8% | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,681 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 472d | slamjampeter | 12–13% | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,625 | +$175 +11% | 10 |
| 472d | Dodor | 12–13% | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$319 +30% | 10 |
| 473d | InsiderrrZ | 13%+ | SellYes34¢ → 0¢ | $2,939 | +$2,939 +100% | — |
| 473d | poptree | 11–12% | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,823 | −$53 −2.9% | — |
| 474d | pmt013 | 8–9% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,812 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 475d | wokerjoesleeper | 13%+ | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,387 | +$714 +52% | 10 |
| 475d | wokerjoesleeper | 11–12% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,055 | +$46 +2.2% | 10 |
| 475d | kaj43 | 13%+ | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $2,599 | −$2,599 −100% | 13 |
| 479d | Funfzig3 fills | <8% | SellNo>99¢ | $12,651 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 479d | AJM96 | 13%+ | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $2,416 | −$1,086 −45% | — |
| 479d |  ciro2 | 12–13% | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,463 | +$857 +59% | 10 |
12345678asd15 sharesThis market will resolve according to the ranked-choice voting (RCV) margin of victory for the listed candidate in the 2025 Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, scheduled for June 24, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the final-round vote share received by the listed candidate and the vote share received by the other candidate in the final RCV round. Final-round vote shares will be calculated by dividing each of the final two candidates’ vote totals by the combined total of their votes in that round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified results of the final RCV round as published by the New York City Board of Elections. If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 12–13% means the market gives it about 100%.