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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 100% | +1 pts | +24 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 434d |
| $200M | 100% | +3 pts | +63 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 434d |
| $300M | 100% | +8 pts | +83 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 434d |
| $1B | 0% | −7 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 434d |
| $400M | 100% | +9 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 434d |
| $700M | 0% | −42 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 434d |
| $500M | 100% | +29 pts | +95 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 434d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 127d |  cr1mean | $500M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,021 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 127d |  Lastcent | $400M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,598 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 127d |  abhionpoly | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,463 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 127d |  OutgoingViolation | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,452 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 127d |  Jiang2025 | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,138 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 127d | rewpop | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,265 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 127d | rewpop | $400M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,309 | +$8 +0.3% | 2 |
| 127d | Jiang2025 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,119 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 127d | rewpop | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,760 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 127d | rewpop | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,676 | +$7 +0.2% | 2 |
| 127d | 1881aa | $200M | SellYes100¢ | $1,111 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 127d | 1881aa | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,619 | +$21 +1.3% | 2 |
| 127d |  UPSTAGE | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,491 | +$9 +0.2% | 2 |
| 127d |  ke1pie | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,393 | +$7 +0.2% | 2 |
| 127d |  fleeth | $300M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,353 | +$35 +1.0% | 2 |
| 127d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,352 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 127d | Odd-Relish | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,806 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 127d | KENNYG | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,786 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 127d |  btc16 | $200M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,936 | +$81 +1.0% | 2 |
| 127d |  KRISSA69 | $200M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,544 | +$26 +1.0% | 2 |
| 127d | apiwat | $1B | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$26 +2.4% | 2 |
| 127d | sleepin | $200M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$14 +1.4% | 2 |
| 128d | 1881aa2 fills | $200M | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $3,121 | +$645 +21% | 2 |
| 128d | Tianhe2 fills | $200M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,756 | +$284 +7.6% | 2 |
| 128d | ke1pie | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$12 +1.1% | 2 |
| 128d | GrayJasper | $100M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,133 | −$103 −2.0% | — |
| 128d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e4245624 fills | $200M | BuyNo55¢ → 0¢ | $4,529 | −$4,529 −100% | 2 |
| 129d | BaoC2 fills | $200M | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $2,059 | +$2,337 +114% | 2 |
| 130d |  alphaalii3 fills | $100M | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $11,706 | +$1,953 +17% | 2 |
| 141d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e424562 | $100M | BuyNo26¢ → 0¢ | $1,423 | −$1,423 −100% | 4 |
| 148d | hornetsfan | $100M | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $4,473 | +$916 +20% | 2 |
| 207d | Loathsome-Emphasis3 fills | $100M | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $2,941 | +$1,232 +42% | 2 |
| 223d | StrongReid | $100M | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,119 | +$551 +18% | 2 |
| 224d | RodriguezAutumn | $100M | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $4,966 | +$780 +16% | 2 |
| 225d | Alexanderwolf3 fills | $100M | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $6,435 | +$1,227 +19% | 2 |
| 226d | GrayJasper2 fills | $100M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,995 | +$239 +4.8% | 2 |
labistiiia1,000 shares
bauer24509 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $100M means the market gives it about 100%.