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Polymarket wallet 0x21ceee4f8cc0a1a85d9c296a2165c96aaac0a607 · on Polymarket since Jan 28, 2026 · also shown as Complex-Manacle
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2 | 81¢ → 100¢ | $2 | +$0 +24% |
| Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 90¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Lightning | 52 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182d | Spread: Lightning (-1.5) | BuyLightning30¢ | $16 |
| 184d | Knicks vs. Hawks | BuyHawks49¢ | $8 |
| 208d | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BuyNo89¢ | $4 |
| 226d | Hornets vs. Kings | BuyHornets86¢ | $2 |
| 226d | Knicks vs. Jazz | BuyKnicks89¢ | $2 |
| 226d | o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BuyYes80¢ | $2 |
| 239d | Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026? | BuyYes90¢ | $4 |
| 239d | Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15? | BuyYes96¢ | $4 |
| 239d | Hornets vs. Pacers | BuyHornets86¢ | $4 |
| 265d | Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election? | BuyYes98¢ | $1 |
| 265d | Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | BuyYes92¢ | $1 |
| 265d | Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | BuyYes98¢ | $1 |
| 265d | Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BuyYes99¢ | $2 |
| 265d | Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | BuyYes92¢ | $1 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 10 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.