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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 0% | −6 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $400M | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $200M | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $300M | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $30M | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 184d | kiviro | $30M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,208 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d |  OraculumNobius | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,274 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d | roflingbets | $100M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,374 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 185d |  beenraping | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,969 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d |  abhionpoly | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,635 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d | abhionpoly | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,304 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 185d | abhionpoly | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,079 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 185d | roflingbets | $100M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,874 | +$39 +2.1% | 2 |
| 186d |  mewmew1 | $100M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$80 +5.3% | 2 |
| 260d |  BuyerOfNo | $300M | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,660 | +$340 +20% | 2 |
| 265d | marco22 | $200M | SellNo58¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | −$750 −72% | — |
efficientbetting662 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Octra's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Octra (https://x.com/octra) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for $100M means the market gives it about 0%.