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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85+ | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <65 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65–69 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 70–74 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 75–79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80–84 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 535d | Jerry4242 | 85+ | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,108 | −$127 −6.0% | — |
| 538d | Jerry4242 | 85+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,250 | +$4 +0.3% | 10 |
| 539d | shinyandrew3 fills | 85+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,829 | −$60 −1.6% | — |
| 539d |  gopfan2 | 70–74 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,768 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 539d | gopfan2 | <65 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,947 | +$8 +0.1% | 10 |
| 539d |  mantou11 | 70–74 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,055 | +$267 +8.7% | 13 |
| 539d | iamgone | 65–69 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,040 | +$109 +5.4% | 12 |
| 539d | iamgone | 70–74 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,724 | +$498 +29% | 17 |
| 540d | Trump2028 | <65 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,771 | +$26 +1.5% | 10 |
| 541d | Vurelle | 75–79 | SellNo63¢ → 100¢ | $17,962 | −$10,549 −59% | — |
| 541d | Vurelle | 75–79 | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $17,997 | +$10,570 +59% | 15 |
The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. This market will resolve according to the number of seats the Australian Labor Party wins in the Australian House of Representatives (Australia's lower house) as a result of the next Australian parliamentary election. If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Australian government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 85+ means the market gives it about 100%.