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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +78 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 532d | Johnmcmurphy | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,808 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 532d | LBZone3 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,811 | +$34 +0.2% | 20 |
| 532d |  betwick | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes>99¢ | $22,649 | −$45 −0.2% | — |
| 532d | Donaldtrumpp | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,013 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 532d |  Debosnys | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,415 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 532d |  HNIC3 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $20,791 | +$3,962 +19% | 23 |
| 532d | Drowerz | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes>99¢ | $8,300 | −$17 −0.2% | — |
| 532d | mangotree | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $88,227 | +$88 +0.1% | 20 |
| 532d | rdunjgiofnuei | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,922 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 532d |  Car4 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $12,309 | +$272 +2.2% | 20 |
| 532d |  Dropper | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,266 | +$67 +2.0% | 20 |
| 532d | JJMORSON | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | −$46 −4.1% | — |
| 532d |  MisTKy39 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $22,503 | +$7,310 +32% | 20 |
| 532d |  aenews2 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $9,833 | +$973 +9.9% | 20 |
| 532d | Crushed | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | +$76 +6.4% | 20 |
| 532d |  DoneWithIt2 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $4,042 | +$2,611 +65% | 25 |
| 532d | fengxiangyingxiu | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $1,175 | −$1,175 −100% | 20 |
| 532d | HNIC | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,114 | −$1,114 −100% | 20 |
| 532d | MisTKy35 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $7,010 | −$3,278 −47% | — |
| 532d |  mr.ozi | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $4,328 | −$2,666 −62% | — |
| 532d | Johnmcmurphy | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $2,797 | +$1,398 +50% | 20 |
| 532d | paper3533 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo32¢ → 0¢ | $4,244 | −$4,244 −100% | 25 |
| 533d |  George-Simian | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,601 | +$772 +48% | 20 |
| 533d |  NoThoughtsJustVibes | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $3,344 | +$1,595 +48% | 20 |
| 533d | Dropper2 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $2,437 | −$1,462 −60% | — |
| 533d | DragonRider-819 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $2,128 | −$1,651 −78% | — |
| 533d | DoneWithIt4 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $8,669 | −$5,702 −66% | — |
| 533d | rdunjgiofnuei | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | +$557 +49% | 20 |
| 533d | thiswithcigarettes | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo33¢ → 0¢ | $2,069 | −$2,069 −100% | 22 |
| 533d | thiswithcigarettes | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $2,069 | −$1,417 −69% | — |
| 533d | thiswithcigarettes | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,170 | +$316 +10.0% | 20 |
| 533d | 0x65c65De373A10e5f319f72 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,338 | +$149 +11% | 20 |
| 533d | Drowerz3 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $4,563 | +$2,445 +54% | 20 |
| 533d |  Baadger | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $1,886 | −$1,886 −100% | 20 |
| 533d | Drowerz | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellNo48¢ → 0¢ | $2,401 | +$2,401 +100% | — |
| 533d | Capatalistbidder06 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $1,888 | −$1,888 −100% | 20 |
| 533d | Car | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $1,340 | −$1,340 −100% | 20 |
| 533d | Drowerz | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,978 | −$1,978 −100% | 30 |
| 533d | pacorjs | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellNo67¢ → 0¢ | $1,113 | +$1,113 +100% | — |
| 533d | mooseytunes02 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $3,426 | −$3,426 −100% | 28 |
| 533d | lowrisk24 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,093 | −$1,093 −100% | 27 |
| 534d | CameronMoore | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,413 | −$1,172 −83% | — |
| 534d |  GTFKY | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $3,446 | −$2,443 −71% | — |
| 534d | Logan.2 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $3,167 | −$1,726 −55% | — |
| 534d |  Ra975121579 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,733 | +$782 +45% | 28 |
| 534d | Brokenstig1 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellYes52¢ → 100¢ | $3,055 | −$2,869 −94% | — |
| 534d |  Hamapo | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,203 | +$245 +20% | 25 |
| 534d | Hamapo | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellNo24¢ → 0¢ | $1,203 | +$1,203 +100% | — |
| 534d | Hamapo2 fills | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $2,462 | −$2,462 −100% | 25 |
| 534d |  ChironCrossing | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $1,271 | −$1,271 −100% | 28 |
| 534d | cryptoaashik | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellNo59¢ → 0¢ | $2,828 | +$2,828 +100% | — |
| 534d |  Lloydtown | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,306 | −$1,306 −100% | 24 |
| 534d | maadscientist | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,420 | −$1,420 −100% | 25 |
| 534d | kaashxo1 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | SellNo47¢ → 0¢ | $1,689 | +$1,689 +100% | — |
| 534d | kaashxo1 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $2,148 | −$2,148 −100% | 25 |
babendums2,813 shares
Ali021,698 sharesBaadger1,684 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Indian soil between May 7, 2:30 PM ET and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Indian ground territory. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Indian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes along the line of control, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or sanctions, will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.