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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 389d | SyndicShadow | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,165 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d |  basedcigany2 fills | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,791 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d | Artemion | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | −$45 −1.5% | — |
| 401d |  XAE12Archangel | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,484 | +$17 +1.1% | 20 |
| 401d | pako | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,629 | +$20 +1.2% | 20 |
| 403d | igeniu | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,745 | +$38 +2.2% | 20 |
| 403d |  kenegg | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,171 | +$26 +2.3% | 20 |
| 403d |  0xdc3E831cad3 fills | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,135 | −$144 −2.8% | — |
| 403d | Artemion | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,608 | +$127 +1.9% | 20 |
| 407d | Jerzy | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$30 +2.3% | 20 |
| 408d | esac | Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | −$34 −2.9% | — |
Tonymontana96172 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Poland initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Belarusian soil or any official Belarusian embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Polish military forces that impact Belarusian ground territory or any official Belarusian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Belarusian soil is hit by a Polish missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Belarusian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Polish ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.