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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +58 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 577d |  Flipadelphia | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,401 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 577d |  Car12 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $38,042 | +$9,362 +25% | 20 |
| 577d | Legume | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,416 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 577d |  Naichli | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,119 | +$42 +1.3% | 20 |
| 577d |  Sivert | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | +$20 +1.4% | 20 |
| 577d |  YoungGriff | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,264 | +$58 +1.8% | 20 |
| 577d |  praesagus2 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,189 | −$289 −4.0% | — |
| 577d | praesagus2 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,089 | +$129 +4.2% | 20 |
| 577d |  Dropper | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,333 | +$222 +4.2% | 20 |
| 577d | BytePhantom47 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | −$58 −5.6% | — |
| 577d | fkarasek | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,862 | −$128 −6.9% | — |
| 577d |  MisTKy34 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $20,486 | +$1,570 +7.7% | 20 |
| 577d | HLB-377 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 20 |
| 577d |  cbo342 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $4,273 | −$599 −14% | — |
| 577d | Kingstonfox | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,584 | −$85 −3.3% | — |
| 577d |  ScamWick3 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $24,211 | +$1,910 +7.9% | 20 |
| 577d | Car3 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $6,500 | −$872 −13% | — |
| 577d | cbo342 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,470 | +$350 +10% | 20 |
| 577d |  NINE-126 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,837 | −$354 −19% | — |
| 577d | Kilocap | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $5,952 | −$1,229 −21% | — |
| 577d |  khatai | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | +$121 +11% | 20 |
| 577d |  scottilicious4 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $27,196 | +$5,996 +22% | 20 |
| 577d | rtxhjtryujiryt2 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,109 | +$536 +17% | 20 |
| 577d | denizz | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo44¢ → 0¢ | $2,185 | +$2,185 +100% | — |
| 577d | BowlOfPunch2 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes46¢ → 100¢ | $8,587 | +$10,163 +118% | 22 |
| 578d | KrackenSruster4 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo52¢ → 0¢ | $7,522 | +$7,522 +100% | — |
| 578d |  DumplingBMF | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes42¢ → 100¢ | $1,738 | −$2,400 −138% | — |
| 578d | amused853 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $6,443 | −$6,443 −100% | 20 |
| 578d | AlexPro | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | +$1,380 +133% | 20 |
| 578d | denizz | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | +$1,380 +133% | 20 |
| 579d | pondoxva | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $11,000 | −$11,000 −100% | 20 |
| 579d | nonkenny90 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $3,190 | +$3,190 +100% | — |
| 580d |  Alphax | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,465 | −$2,108 −144% | — |
| 580d | DragonRider-819 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo57¢ → 0¢ | $1,140 | +$1,140 +100% | — |
| 580d |  BuckMySalls2 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo59¢ → 0¢ | $5,299 | +$5,299 +100% | — |
| 581d | amused852 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $6,596 | +$6,596 +100% | — |
| 582d | jsjr | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo62¢ → 0¢ | $1,550 | −$1,550 −100% | 20 |
| 582d |  punishedgoon | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes39¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | −$1,842 −156% | — |
| 582d | nonkenny902 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $2,835 | −$2,835 −100% | 20 |
| 583d | Superjet2 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo57¢ → 0¢ | $2,250 | +$2,250 +100% | — |
| 583d | trader2e1 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes38¢ → 100¢ | $1,427 | −$2,322 −163% | — |
| 584d |  rabbit007 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo57¢ → 0¢ | $1,126 | +$1,126 +100% | — |
| 584d |  COVID-isTheNew-HUNTER-PARDON3 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $12,156 | +$12,156 +100% | — |
| 584d | BowlOfPunch | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,059 | −$1,059 −100% | 20 |
| 584d | keribit | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo55¢ → 0¢ | $1,644 | −$1,644 −100% | 20 |
| 584d | rabbit007 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,067 | −$1,067 −100% | 20 |
| 584d | KrackenSruster2 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo56¢ → 0¢ | $2,880 | −$2,880 −100% | 20 |
| 584d | Champ | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes46¢ → 100¢ | $2,400 | +$2,817 +117% | 21 |
| 585d | mRasska | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo59¢ → 0¢ | $1,012 | −$1,012 −100% | 20 |
| 585d | Xenara | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes42¢ → 100¢ | $44,153 | −$60,974 −138% | — |
| 586d | Syvex | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo57¢ → 0¢ | $59,922 | −$59,922 −100% | 20 |
| 586d |  FrancisSP82 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo66¢ → 0¢ | $3,360 | +$3,360 +100% | — |
| 587d | COVID-isTheNew-HUNTER-PARDON2 fills | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $3,698 | −$3,698 −100% | 20 |
| 587d |  Doggerlander | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $1,087 | +$1,087 +100% | — |
| 588d | Krythos | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | SellYes33¢ → 100¢ | $29,988 | −$60,885 −203% | — |
| 589d | Aerionis | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $62,702 | −$62,702 −100% | 20 |
| 589d |  How.Dare.You | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $1,051 | −$1,051 −100% | 20 |
| 589d | FrancisSP8 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyNo62¢ → 0¢ | $1,067 | −$1,067 −100% | 20 |
| 591d |  88888LUCKY88888 | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$1,366 +127% | 20 |
| 591d | pkz | Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? | BuyYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,577 | +$2,031 +129% | 21 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, specifically covering sea or air operations between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A general ceasefire agreement which covers all theaters of war will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the ceasefire goes into effect. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine specifically addressing sea or air operations has been reached will suffice
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.
