Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 100% | +19 pts | +19 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | in 68d |
| August 31 | 100% | +2 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +9 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Successful splash down? | 100% | +23 pts | +30 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 68d |
| July 23 | 0% | −41 pts | −30 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 16 | 0% | −69 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 17 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| July 24 | 100% | +33 pts | — | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| July 26 | 100% | +17 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 25 | 100% | +17 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 27 | 100% | +12 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90d | Taut-Witness-Scraper2 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,469 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 90d | aviato2 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 90d | 1walrus | Successful splash down? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,423 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 90d | Wilted-Handrail | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,661 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 |
| 90d |  Raskell | August 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,062 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 90d |  Hakei. | August 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,421 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 90d | Hakei. | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,499 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 90d | Hakei. | July 27 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,886 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 90d | Hakei. | July 26 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,097 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 90d | 1walrus2 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,005 | +$181 +3.0% | 4 |
| 90d | 0x8931…a90c | July 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,991 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 90d | Coordinated-Leather | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,430 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 90d | 1walrus3 fills | August 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,476 | +$337 +3.6% | 20 |
| 90d |  AgricultureSecretary | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,160 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 90d | 1walrus | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,486 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 90d | AgricultureSecretary | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,116 | +$24 +0.3% | 20 |
| 90d | 0x8931…a90c | August 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,988 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 90d | Hakei.2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,943 | +$261 +6.6% | 20 |
| 90d | Raskell | August 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,035 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 90d | AgricultureSecretary2 fills | July 24 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $13,106 | +$443 +3.4% | 20 |
| 90d | 1walrus | July 25 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,512 | +$419 +6.4% | 22 |
| 90d |  balthazar | July 25 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,737 | +$263 +15% | 24 |
| 90d |  LadyLuck2 | July 26 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,308 | +$470 +11% | 22 |
| 90d | Hakei. | July 26 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,062 | +$282 +14% | 22 |
| 90d | Hakei. | July 27 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,588 | +$302 +12% | 22 |
| 91d |  SickandTired | August 31 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,345 | −$70 −1.6% | — |
| 91d | 1walrus | July 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,474 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 91d |  GonTanaka4 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $12,285 | +$3,435 +28% | 4 |
| 91d | ash722 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyNo31¢ → 0¢ | $2,500 | −$2,500 −100% | 7 |
| 92d | Orion962 fills | Successful splash down? | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,107 +37% | 4 |
| 92d | Orion964 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $11,100 | +$2,468 +22% | 4 |
| 93d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc2 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $3,094 | +$615 +20% | 4 |
| 93d |  BigMackyG2 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $4,412 | +$865 +20% | 4 |
| 94d | SickandTired | August 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,956 | +$344 +8.7% | 20 |
| 94d |  Vanquish | August 31 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$98 +9.6% | 20 |
| 95d | cyberpizda2 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyNo23¢ → 0¢ | $3,414 | −$3,414 −100% | 10 |
| 97d |  i.love.Frieren | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$257 +26% | 4 |
| 98d | 0x8931…a90c | July 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d | Hakei. | August 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,374 | +$49 +3.6% | 20 |
| 98d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | Successful splash down? | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | −$349 −31% | — |
| 98d | Paul973973 | July 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 98d | Kaleidoscopic-Armoire | July 17 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 98d | 1walrus | July 17 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,654 | +$91 +1.4% | 20 |
| 98d | SweetChariot | July 17 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 98d | Kaleidoscopic-Armoire | July 17 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$169 +13% | 24 |
| 98d |  noreasapa | July 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,020 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d |  Rhabarberbarbarbar | Super Heavy booster explodes? | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,714 | −$207 −12% | — |
| 98d | noreasapa | July 16 | BuyYes99¢ → 0¢ | $8,885 | −$8,885 −100% | 20 |
| 98d | darthgeek1338 | July 17 | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $3,490 | −$3,490 −100% | 21 |
| 98d | Rhabarberbarbarbar | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,658 | +$263 +16% | 4 |
| 98d | IronE | Successful splash down? | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,656 | +$644 +39% | 4 |
| 99d | KairoNexus | July 17 | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $1,311 | −$1,311 −100% | 25 |
| 100d | zhaoyk | Successful splash down? | BuyNo33¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 5 |
| 103d | IronE | July 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,761 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d |  Chayzon | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$354 +35% | 4 |
KLccKris3,293 sharesThis is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Super Heavy booster explodes? means the market gives it about 100%.