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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | 100% | +1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ChatGPT | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Grok | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Claude | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 660d |  FrancisSP8 | Gemini | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,158 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 660d | BreadGet | Gemini | SellYes>99¢ | $2,450 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 660d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | Gemini | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,751 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 660d | EwokGoon | Gemini | SellYes>99¢ | $2,170 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 660d |  carp2 fills | Gemini | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,018 | +$190 +1.7% | 4 |
| 661d |  Office Lover3 fills | Gemini | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,366 | +$181 +2.8% | 4 |
| 661d | Epyat | Gemini | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 661d | 025d2 fills | Gemini | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $7,347 | −$1,020 −14% | — |
| 661d | Eggss | Gemini | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,264 | −$26 −1.1% | — |
| 662d |  Nicetomeetyou | Gemini | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 662d | carp | ChatGPT | SellNo>99¢ | $1,310 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 662d | carp | ChatGPT | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$56 +1.1% | 4 |
| 662d |  DancingonMarshmellos | Gemini | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | +$25 +2.3% | 4 |
| 662d | ok-boomer | Gemini | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,112 | +$36 +3.2% | 5 |
| 662d | dmz | Gemini | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,687 | +$63 +3.7% | 5 |
| 663d | RobXK | ChatGPT | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,473 | +$66 +4.5% | 5 |
| 664d |  Wiz92 | ChatGPT | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,814 | +$243 +3.1% | 4 |
| 664d | tsekinming01 | Gemini | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,629 | +$55 +3.4% | 4 |
| 664d | BlindGibbon | Gemini | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$320 +3.2% | 4 |
| 664d | cigarettes | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,856 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 664d | cigarettes | Claude | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,856 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 664d | cigarettes2 fills | Grok | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,020 | +$9 +0.3% | 4 |
| 664d | DancingonMarshmellos | ChatGPT | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,415 | −$111 −4.6% | — |
| 664d |  TimJang | ChatGPT | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,935 | +$260 +5.3% | 4 |
| 665d |  idunnoman | Gemini | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,392 | +$208 +8.7% | 5 |
| 665d | 025d2 fills | Gemini | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $3,866 | +$869 +22% | 4 |
| 666d |  BayesLeaf | Gemini | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | −$273 −20% | — |
| 666d | DancingonMarshmellos | ChatGPT | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$182 +16% | 5 |
| 666d | sorax | Gemini | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$340 +17% | 5 |
| 667d | Monster24 | Grok | BuyNo100¢ | $1,741 | +$9 +0.5% | 4 |
| 668d | AlecBaldwin420 | ChatGPT | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,256 | +$206 +16% | 4 |
| 668d | Emotional-Speed | Gemini | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,288 | −$243 −19% | — |
| 669d | nonkenny90 | Gemini | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $3,120 | +$880 +28% | 4 |
| 670d |  mcduck2 fills | Gemini | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,347 | +$1,060 +45% | 4 |
| 670d |  yns | Gemini | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | −$531 −49% | — |
| 671d |  thx4urdonation | ChatGPT | BuyYes38¢ → 0¢ | $1,516 | −$1,516 −100% | 5 |
| 671d |  BussyBlaster | ChatGPT | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | +$534 +49% | 4 |
| 671d | EwokGoon | Gemini | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$415 +42% | 4 |
| 671d |  TheGuro | Gemini | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,833 | −$932 −51% | — |
| 672d | Epyat | Gemini | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | +$341 +30% | 4 |
| 673d | thx4urdonation | Gemini | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | −$585 −47% | — |
| 674d |  SiSi | Gemini | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$400 +20% | 4 |
| 674d | thx4urdonation | ChatGPT | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $1,552 | +$826 +53% | 4 |
| 674d | Mhcccc | Gemini | SellNo41¢ → 0¢ | $9,377 | +$9,377 +100% | — |
| 674d | jsctggggg | Gemini | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $4,130 | +$2,870 +69% | 4 |
| 674d | nnchhhc | Gemini | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $9,440 | +$6,560 +69% | 4 |
This is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on December 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ET.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Gemini means the market gives it about 100%.