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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 | 100% | +21 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 9 | 0% | −16 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 348d |  Allinnothing | November 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,044 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 348d |  Frosen2 fills | November 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,846 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 348d | Lukyyyyyyy2 fills | November 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,235 | +$20 +0.4% | 20 |
| 348d | Winged-Outset | November 9 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,146 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 348d |  bamesjond | November 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,810 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
JoaoZedong324 shares
saya.hl280 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between November 7, 11:30 AM ET, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 14 means the market gives it about 100%.