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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +49 pts | +63 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 172d |  debased | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $69,960 | +$70 +0.1% | 4 |
| 172d |  tripping | April 30 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,696 | −$1,696 −100% | 8 |
| 172d | Ordon2 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,991 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 173d | Cyrdex | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,992 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 173d | Dwarkos | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,959 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 173d | Kavros | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,872 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 173d | KiernanMeister | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,424 | +$18 +0.1% | 4 |
| 173d |  EddoThePedo | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,492 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 173d |  KateBollinger | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,994 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 173d |  poorersob | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 174d | onekey02 | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $106,789 | +$107 +0.1% | 4 |
| 174d | Kavros | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,872 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 174d | Cyrdex | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,992 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 174d | Dwarkos | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,959 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 174d | 033033033 | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,805 | +$14 +0.2% | 4 |
| 174d |  elmcap2 | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,512 | +$17 +0.2% | 4 |
| 175d | dube2 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,351 | −$48 −0.2% | — |
| 175d |  Nik-2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,775 | +$12 +0.3% | 4 |
| 175d |  .yumeko | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,196 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 175d | TwoTierKeir | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,407 | +$53 +0.2% | 4 |
| 175d | Trustinghorse | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $62,969 | +$189 +0.3% | 4 |
| 175d | Arman2 | April 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,840 | −$45 −0.6% | — |
| 175d | conotocaurius | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,602 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 175d |  OraculumNobius | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,181 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | apple-pi | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,675 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d |  mr.ozi5 fills | April 30 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $23,161 | +$1,615 +7.0% | 4 |
| 175d |  x.o | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,679 | +$126 +1.4% | 4 |
| 175d | ddolsw123r | June 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | +$58 +4.0% | 4 |
| 175d | OraculumNobius | June 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,973 | +$47 +2.4% | 4 |
| 175d | apple-pi2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $8,002 | +$2,253 +28% | 4 |
| 175d | Test6692 fills | April 30 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$1,184 +12% | 4 |
| 175d | apple-pi | June 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | +$84 +5.3% | 4 |
| 176d | 0x4773…2289 | April 30 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,958 | +$324 +17% | 4 |
| 176d | mr.ozi2 fills | April 30 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $6,385 | −$1,488 −23% | — |
| 176d |  aenews2 | April 30 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | −$155 −14% | — |
| 176d | mr.ozi | June 30 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,625 | +$150 +9.2% | 4 |
| 176d | Arman22 fills | April 30 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$468 +15% | 4 |
| 176d | Arman2 | April 30 | SellNo24¢ → 0¢ | $1,226 | +$1,226 +100% | — |
| 176d | Arman2 | April 30 | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,099 | −$1,099 −100% | 4 |
| 176d | aenews2 | June 30 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | +$351 +27% | 4 |
| 176d |  Chucklehuck | April 30 | BuyNo90¢ → 0¢ | $1,067 | −$1,067 −100% | 4 |
| 186d | okada | April 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,258 | −$1,258 −100% | 4 |
| 189d | Icy-ElfNew account | June 30 | SellNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,127 | +$1,127 +100% | — |
| 191d | Icy-ElfNew account | June 30 | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,116 | −$1,116 −100% | 13 |
| 205d | zxc368 | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,546 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 205d | OraculumNobius | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,052 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 206d |  beenraping | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,764 | +$18 +1.0% | 4 |
EddoThePedo8,508 shares
yesworld28494,680 shares
AKFK101,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 30 means the market gives it about 100%.