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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 357d | boringbigbets | October 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,483 | +$6 +0.4% | 4 |
| 388d |  basedcigany2 fills | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,540 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 388d | choohkz23 | October 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,964 | +$320 +16% | 4 |
| 389d | TheEconometrician2 fills | September 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,738 | −$121 −2.6% | — |
| 389d | TheEconometrician2 fills | September 30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,803 | +$205 +5.4% | 4 |
| 396d | boringbigbets | September 30 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,250 | +$224 +3.1% | 4 |
| 405d | choohkz23 | September 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,350 | +$232 +9.9% | 4 |
cryptoanalyst555 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 12, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for September 30 means the market gives it about 0%.