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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 290d |  scottilicious | U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,388 | −$158 −2.1% | — |
| 292d | scottilicious | U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,298 | +$248 +3.4% | 4 |
| 293d | cashy | U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$60 +5.3% | 4 |
chaoticclimb833 shares
ImJustKen555 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.