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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +92 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 489d | B2twarminius | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $10,385 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 489d | Pontizer | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,867 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 489d | Ordon2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,494 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 489d | 0xoracle | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $5,794 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 489d | tsekinming012 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $31,827 | +$32 +0.1% | 20 |
| 489d | 0xsparta2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,501 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 489d | MAGA.ONE | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $52,330 | +$105 +0.2% | 20 |
| 489d |  d1k213 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,385 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 489d |  KING-VIP23 | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $50,874 | −$51 −0.1% | — |
| 489d |  DoneWithIt | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,220 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 489d | Avocado-Eater | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,198 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 489d | askdjh32345kj | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $18,969 | −$47 −0.2% | — |
| 489d | 0x65c65De373A10e5f319f72 | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,226 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 489d |  Hm141085 | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,098 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 489d |  0943 | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $9,376 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 489d | Bringthemhome | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,867 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 489d | Muted-Stew | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,851 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 489d |  Patroclus | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $6,270 | −$18 −0.3% | — |
| 489d |  elmcap23 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $331,058 | +$568 +0.2% | 20 |
| 489d | 2117 | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $8,815 | −$35 −0.4% | — |
| 489d |  Alphax | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,583 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 489d | Mikelaawrey | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,892 | −$17 −0.9% | — |
| 489d | BulkeyBull | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,347 | −$85 −0.9% | — |
| 489d | po1yuser | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,043 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 489d | cryptid3 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $24,846 | −$187 −0.8% | — |
| 489d | runningBTC | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,142 | −$13 −0.4% | — |
| 489d | mangotree | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,923 | +$48 +0.3% | 20 |
| 489d | InterpretiveCapital | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes100¢ | $5,174 | −$26 −0.5% | — |
| 489d |  Debosnys | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 489d |  WhiteLivesMatter | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $21,681 | +$121 +0.6% | 20 |
| 489d | New-AdministratorNew account | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $38,691 | −$348 −0.9% | — |
| 489d | Nomad117 | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,082 | −$46 −0.9% | — |
| 489d | Tizak | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | −$36 −3.0% | — |
| 489d | NMwins | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,967 | −$303 −5.1% | — |
| 489d | rolser | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $14,094 | −$478 −3.4% | — |
| 489d | Taitaitai | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,825 | −$41 −0.9% | — |
| 489d | Sandra.rachkova2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $29,145 | −$428 −1.5% | — |
| 489d |  Flaner | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $23,408 | +$362 +1.5% | 20 |
| 489d |  BeneGesseritVoice2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,655 | +$292 +5.2% | 22 |
| 489d | Predictor48 | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,704 | −$185 −6.8% | — |
| 489d | Fluffthemagicdragon | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $9,701 | −$702 −7.2% | — |
| 489d |  Funfzig2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $14,766 | +$19,629 +133% | 32 |
| 489d | Frightening-Transit | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$107 +2.1% | 21 |
| 489d | greengasper2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$1,145 +29% | 27 |
| 489d | Tizak | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $2,112 | +$1,222 +58% | 30 |
| 489d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $4,097 | +$2,214 +54% | 30 |
| 489d | occupant2902 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $4,497 | −$4,497 −100% | 24 |
| 489d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellNo37¢ → 0¢ | $14,726 | +$14,726 +100% | — |
| 489d |  Car2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes22¢ → 100¢ | $5,614 | +$20,269 +361% | 39 |
| 489d | slight- | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes10¢ → 100¢ | $9,820 | +$92,570 +943% | 47 |
| 489d | smoltrader2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $4,331 | −$4,331 −100% | 24 |
| 489d | Patroclus | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyYes6¢ → 100¢ | $2,023 | +$31,236 +1544% | 35 |
| 489d | Rundeep2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellYes6¢ → 100¢ | $3,183 | −$47,417 −1490% | — |
| 489d | lowrisk243 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $10,424 | −$10,424 −100% | 22 |
| 489d | GrrrrrPaw2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $8,484 | −$8,484 −100% | 21 |
| 489d |  siick | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellNo93¢ → 0¢ | $1,395 | +$1,395 +100% | — |
| 489d |  purpH | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $2,064 | −$2,064 −100% | 22 |
| 489d | 09432 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $8,923 | −$8,923 −100% | 21 |
| 489d | NihilFit | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $13,155 | −$13,155 −100% | 22 |
| 489d | Patroclus2 fills | US military action against Iran by Saturday? | SellNo92¢ → 0¢ | $4,098 | +$4,098 +100% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 19, and June 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.
