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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 491d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,136 | −$71 −1.7% | — |
| 491d | Dbrain | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,330 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 491d |  Mythrust | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,612 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | esac | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,892 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d |  d1k21 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d | m20241223 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,878 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d | spark12 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,510 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d |  Funfzig5 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $44,842 | +$414 +0.9% | 20 |
| 491d | 0x253d…3307 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d |  Dr.EmmetBrown | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,587 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 491d |  cy6erpunker | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d | hd9827 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo100¢ | $4,658 | −$23 −0.5% | — |
| 491d | Kjjj7788 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo100¢ | $1,823 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 491d |  imtiredb0ss4 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,134 | +$300 +3.3% | 20 |
| 491d | wubddh2 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,063 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 491d |  Car3 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,134 | +$351 +6.8% | 20 |
| 491d |  N1KOLAI5 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,972 | −$28 −1.4% | — |
| 491d |  BeneGesseritVoice | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 491d | chuchulong5 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $15,255 | +$592 +3.9% | 20 |
| 491d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,257 | −$56 −1.7% | — |
| 491d |  CMCAM | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,566 | +$37 +1.0% | 20 |
| 491d |  FrancisSP83 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,715 | +$399 +3.1% | 20 |
| 491d | Parz1vaI3 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,331 | +$107 +2.0% | 20 |
| 491d | affs207912 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,118 | +$158 +1.4% | 20 |
| 491d | AZwater2 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,073 | +$77 +2.5% | 20 |
| 491d | Car | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,383 | −$217 −2.3% | — |
| 491d |  ideasaregood | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | −$22 −2.0% | — |
| 492d | emma39862 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $19,674 | +$670 +3.4% | 20 |
| 492d | Dave962 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,610 | +$169 +6.5% | 20 |
| 492d | Clown2 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,451 | +$112 +3.2% | 20 |
| 492d | Kjjj7788 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,771 | +$61 +3.5% | 20 |
| 492d | hd9827 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,069 | +$131 +2.2% | 20 |
| 492d | ourdemocracy | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,406 | +$31 +1.3% | 20 |
| 492d | apricotus | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$22 −2.0% | — |
| 492d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,250 | +$72 +2.2% | 20 |
| 492d | notlauren6 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $14,169 | +$709 +5.0% | 20 |
| 492d |  scottilicious2 fills | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $26,453 | +$2,979 +11% | 23 |
| 492d | rwo | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | +$95 +8.8% | 20 |
| 492d |  Ritlas | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,020 | +$307 +5.1% | 20 |
| 492d |  Alphax | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,051 | +$91 +8.7% | 20 |
| 492d | NihilFit | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,756 | +$174 +9.9% | 20 |
| 492d | Seik | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$114 +9.9% | 20 |
| 492d | ppp666 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,653 | +$318 +8.7% | 20 |
| 492d | hindu | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,392 | −$208 −8.7% | — |
| 492d | name505 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,135 | +$99 +8.7% | 20 |
| 492d | Yitzhak | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyYes11¢ → 0¢ | $1,135 | −$1,135 −100% | 21 |
| 492d | aff3 | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,324 | +$212 +6.4% | 20 |
| 492d | Dr.EmmetBrown | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,261 | +$81 +6.4% | 20 |
| 492d | Player3HasEnteredTheGame | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$129 +6.5% | 20 |
| 492d |  Anjun | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,167 | +$362 +8.7% | 20 |
| 492d | apricotus | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$88 +8.7% | 20 |
| 492d |  arjennnnn | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,454 | +$273 +11% | 20 |
| 492d |  HMRevenueandCustoms | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | BuyYes17¢ → 0¢ | $1,270 | −$1,270 −100% | 31 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 18, and June 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.