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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | +88 pts | +70 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −8 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −3 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160d | NeoOracle | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 160d | 0x4773…22892 fills | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,776 | +$51 +0.9% | 20 |
| 160d |  Copezilla | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,082 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 160d |  yen4u | June 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,042 | −$256 −3.6% | — |
| 160d |  ItrustJesus | June 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,216 | −$25 −1.1% | — |
| 160d |  imnice2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,383 | +$97 +2.2% | 20 |
| 160d | Arman22 fills | June 30 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $3,053 | +$807 +26% | 20 |
| 161d | Test6692 fills | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,880 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 161d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042 fills | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,334 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 161d | yen4u3 fills | June 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,570 | +$218 +4.8% | 20 |
| 161d | Awkward-Bride | June 30 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$1,077 +100% | 20 |
| 238d | Pleasant-Hexagon | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$15 +1.0% | 21 |
| 265d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,671 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d |  MasonsConqueredRome | January 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | −$48 −3.5% | — |
| 272d | rsxn | January 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,899 | −$163 −8.6% | — |
| 283d | Huludubu | January 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | −$35 −3.3% | — |
| 287d |  Vanquish2 fills | January 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,608 | +$518 +20% | 20 |
| 294d | KostenBerg | January 31 | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | +$621 +59% | 20 |
| 296d |  duderr | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,330 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 296d |  Ahpo | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,597 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 296d | Poory | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 296d | yougotme | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,716 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 296d |  Naichli | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,659 | +$17 +1.0% | 20 |
| 296d |  ElPolla120 | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,047 | −$54 −2.6% | — |
| 296d | YHK | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$36 +2.0% | 20 |
| 296d |  Oompa-Loompa | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$22 +2.2% | 20 |
| 297d |  Trading4Fridge2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,328 | +$513 +22% | 20 |
| 297d | ElPolla120 | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,056 | +$105 +5.1% | 20 |
| 299d |  Car | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,162 | +$101 +8.7% | 20 |
rigatohni9,308 shares
Runny-Clasp1,116 sharesyen4u1,000 shares
aestheted450 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for June 30 means the market gives it about 100%.