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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 28% | −4 pts | +18 pts | 27¢ · 29¢ (1¢) | $10.6K | in 69d |
| June 30, 2027 | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | $7.26K | in 250d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo42¢ → 51¢ | $1,016 | +$198 +20% | 31 | |
| 1d | Flustered-Rack | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes27¢ → 28¢ | $1,012 | +$42 +4.1% | 28 |
| 1d | Elysium777 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes31¢ → 28¢ | $1,000 | −$91 −9.1% | 28 |
| 2d | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo75¢ → 72¢ | $1,057 | −$47 −4.4% | 27 | |
| 5d | Ketabi | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 72¢ | $1,100 | −$254 −23% | 22 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 28¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 28%.