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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 100% | +3 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 2 | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 1 | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 5 | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 4 | 100% | +22 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 363d | Michael5289 | 4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,210 | +$22 +1.0% | 4 |
| 363d | Michael5289 | 3 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,959 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | Michael5289 | 2 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,649 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | Michael5289 | 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,238 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system named in the title reaches the category designation specified at any point according to official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If this system dissipates without attaining the specified category, this market will resolve to "No". You can find definitional wind speeds for each category here: https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" based on any initial advisory released by the NHC that the named tropical system has become a specified category of hurricane, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 3 means the market gives it about 100%.