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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Arrest in 2025 | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 17 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 18 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 19 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 21 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 22 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 23 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 24 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 25 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 26 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 27 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 29 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 295d |  LabubuFan1488 | No Arrest in 2025 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,027 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 299d |  goalone | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,044 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 299d | Michael5289 | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 307d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | December 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,360 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 307d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No Arrest in 2025 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,560 | +$79 +1.7% | 20 |
| 307d |  bamesjond2 fills | December 19 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,977 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 308d | esac | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,073 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 308d | sybaujustbet | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,352 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d |  Snow-White | No Arrest in 2025 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,297 | −$151 −3.5% | — |
| 308d | Fastgaard | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,193 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 308d | randomlypunting | December 19 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,059 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 308d |  inrvoice | No Arrest in 2025 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,916 | +$84 +2.9% | 20 |
| 308d | bamesjond2 fills | December 19 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,989 | +$49 +0.7% | 20 |
| 309d |  PredictionYogi | December 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,508 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | 0x5d8df3c5e43d5e83b3c1c62be63b4c1bb9b9a4F3 | December 18 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,592 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 309d |  Suzuro | December 19 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,485 | −$65 −1.0% | — |
| 309d | Suzuro2 fills | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,527 | +$23 +0.3% | 20 |
| 309d | Suzuro | December 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,392 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 309d |  MLBksRETARD | No Arrest in 2025 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,263 | +$74 +2.3% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,096 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 309d | Warlike-Horn | No Arrest in 2025 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,466 | +$53 +2.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,096 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 20 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,087 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,096 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | cigarettes | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | NefariousX | December 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,639 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 309d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | December 19 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,508 | +$134 +5.3% | 20 |
| 309d | Snow-White2 fills | No Arrest in 2025 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,355 | +$614 +11% | 20 |
| 309d | Michael5289 | December 19 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | +$237 +19% | 20 |
| 309d | Michael5289 | December 20 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | +$25 +1.8% | 20 |
| 309d | NefariousX | December 18 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,543 | +$102 +6.6% | 20 |
| 309d |  blackblackcat | December 18 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,413 | +$57 +4.0% | 20 |
| 309d | Parz1vaI | December 18 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,584 | −$119 −7.5% | — |
| 310d | PredictionYogi | December 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,783 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
boogz1,581 sharesThis market will resolve according to the next listed date (ET) on which any individual is arrested in direct connection with the December 13th Brown University mass shooting. Only arrests of individuals for alleged participation in the planning or execution of the shooting itself will qualify. Arrests made solely for related or subsequent conduct will not qualify. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant is being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest If no qualifying arrest occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Arrest in 2025”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No Arrest in 2025 means the market gives it about 100%.