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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $750 | 100% | +10 pts | +69 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $760 | 0% | −22 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $730 | 0% | −3 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $700 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $710 | 0% | −2 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $740 | 100% | +10 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $720 | 0% | −1 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $770 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $690 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $780 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $650 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $680 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $670 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $730 | 100% | +38 pts | +54 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $660 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $790 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $800 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $720 | 100% | +12 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 147d |  HorribleWork3 fills | ↑ $770 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,163 | +$202 +6.4% | 4 |
| 147d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↓ $720 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,027 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↓ $700 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,103 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↓ $730 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,499 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↑ $760 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,139 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | paciang | ↓ $720 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | paciang2 fills | ↓ $700 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,361 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | cryptothan3 fills | ↑ $760 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $4,609 | +$1,141 +25% | 4 |
| 148d | hisiri1101 | ↓ $700 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 148d | HorribleWork3 fills | ↑ $780 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,157 | +$74 +1.2% | 4 |
| 148d | Nifteguy | ↓ $690 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 148d | Nifteguy | ↓ $670 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,460 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 148d | cryptothan | ↓ $730 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,549 | +$327 +9.2% | 5 |
| 149d | HorribleWork | ↑ $790 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,451 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 150d |  olegs | ↑ $750 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,615 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 150d | cryptothan3 fills | ↑ $750 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $13,861 | +$5,091 +37% | 4 |
| 151d | sdhyky4 fills | ↑ $750 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $6,646 | +$4,123 +62% | 4 |
| 151d |  headsh0t | ↑ $750 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,443 | −$127 −8.8% | — |
| 151d | west77 | ↓ $700 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,476 | −$43 −2.9% | — |
| 151d | headsh0t | ↑ $750 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$210 +11% | 5 |
| 152d | sdhyky | ↓ $730 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,177 | −$393 −12% | — |
| 153d | HorribleWork | ↓ $730 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $4,456 | +$786 +18% | 4 |
| 153d | HorribleWork | ↓ $710 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,765 | +$147 +5.3% | 4 |
| 153d | HorribleWork | ↓ $720 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,577 | +$137 +8.7% | 4 |
| 153d | HorribleWork | ↑ $750 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,318 | +$710 +54% | 4 |
| 153d |  sirrothko6 fills | ↑ $750 | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $19,155 | +$13,603 +71% | 4 |
| 153d |  TimRob | ↑ $750 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$700 +54% | 4 |
| 153d | sdhyky | ↓ $730 | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $1,447 | +$1,121 +78% | 4 |
| 153d | HorribleWork4 fills | ↑ $760 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $8,916 | +$1,795 +20% | 4 |
| 154d | cryptothan | ↑ $760 | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,193 | −$475 −22% | — |
| 154d | sdhyky | ↓ $710 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,379 | −$211 −15% | — |
| 154d | sdhyky2 fills | ↓ $720 | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $2,749 | −$1,321 −48% | — |
| 154d | sirrothko3 fills | ↑ $750 | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $5,758 | −$3,749 −65% | — |
| 154d | DualDelta | ↑ $750 | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $3,654 | −$1,967 −54% | — |
| 156d | sirrothko | ↓ $730 | SellYes57¢ → 0¢ | $1,159 | +$1,159 +100% | — |
| 156d | momomo12 | ↑ $750 | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | −$925 −89% | — |
| 156d | momomo12 | ↑ $750 | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | +$1,376 +122% | 4 |
| 157d | sirrothko | ↓ $720 | SellYes55¢ → 0¢ | $2,159 | +$2,159 +100% | — |
| 157d | HorribleWork | ↑ $750 | BuyNo56¢ → 0¢ | $1,641 | −$1,641 −100% | 4 |
| 158d | sirrothko | ↓ $720 | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $1,871 | −$1,871 −100% | 4 |
| 159d | sirrothko | ↑ $760 | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,278 | +$567 +44% | 4 |
| 160d | sdhyky3 fills | ↓ $720 | BuyNo51¢ → 100¢ | $4,540 | +$4,293 +95% | 4 |
| 160d | DualDelta | ↑ $750 | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $2,386 | +$2,691 +113% | 4 |
| 161d | sdhyky2 fills | ↑ $750 | SellYes63¢ → 100¢ | $3,645 | −$2,168 −59% | — |
| 164d |  ghuonliyelkihxeklkgeu | ↑ $770 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | +$241 +21% | 4 |
| 165d | shcc | ↑ $740 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,143 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 165d | sdhyky | ↓ $710 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,825 | +$1,027 +56% | 4 |
| 165d | exothetajunkie | ↑ $740 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,282 | +$254 +11% | 4 |
| 165d | Private-Pantologist | ↑ $740 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,043 | +$227 +11% | 4 |
| 166d | TimRob | ↓ $700 | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,402 | −$491 −35% | — |
| 166d | momomo12 | ↓ $710 | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | −$691 −56% | — |
| 167d | Poortorich | ↓ $710 | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $1,105 | −$1,105 −100% | 4 |
| 168d | Newbietrading | ↓ $710 | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $1,001 | −$1,001 −100% | 4 |
| 168d | Newbietrading | ↓ $710 | BuyNo59¢ → 100¢ | $1,703 | +$1,197 +70% | 4 |
| 168d | TimRob | ↓ $690 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$307 +31% | 4 |
| 168d | TimRob | ↓ $700 | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | +$568 +49% | 4 |
| 169d |  rkreddyzoomin | ↓ $700 | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | −$715 −57% | — |
| 169d | sirrothko | ↑ $740 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,580 | −$420 −27% | — |
| 169d | TimRob | ↓ $660 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,571 | −$83 −5.3% | — |
| 170d | MueyKub | ↓ $710 | BuyNo47¢ → 100¢ | $1,410 | +$1,590 +113% | 4 |
rkreddyzoomin943 sharesWhat will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for ↑ $750 means the market gives it about 100%.