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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation 40+ times | 0% | −87 pts | −84 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Good Afternoon | 100% | +2 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Russia | 0% | −8 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump | 0% | −11 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Inflation 60+ times | 0% | −60 pts | −56 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tariff | 100% | +1 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tariff 20+ times | 0% | −73 pts | −76 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Recession | 100% | +14 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Quantitative Tightening | 0% | −8 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Inflation 50+ times | 0% | −72 pts | −71 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tariff 5+ times | 100% | +6 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Immigrant / Immigration | 100% | +28 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Unemployment 8+ times | 100% | +17 pts | +17 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 0% | −10 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Overreact | 0% | −45 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ukraine | 0% | −14 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Balance Sheet | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 534d |  Barfalomew | Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $2,411 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 534d | LBZone | Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,515 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d |  noreasapa | Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,547 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 534d | AreWeNotEntertained | Inflation 40+ times | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,526 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 534d |  Oompa-Loompa | Inflation 60+ times | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,172 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 534d |  Dropper | Inflation 40+ times | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,414 | +$60 +4.3% | 20 |
| 534d | noreasapa | Inflation 50+ times | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 534d | cryptoaxel | Good Afternoon | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,392 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d | OkaneKasegu | Good Afternoon | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,632 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 534d | Ronaldo21002 fills | Good Afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,457 | +$79 +1.8% | 20 |
| 534d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | Good Afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,179 | +$26 +2.2% | 20 |
| 534d |  Vladooos2 fills | Good Afternoon | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,270 | +$62 +1.5% | 20 |
| 534d |  Drizzl3r2 fills | Inflation 60+ times | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $2,154 | +$2,160 +100% | 28 |
| 534d | Vladooos | Tariff | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,116 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 534d | Vladooos | Tariff 5+ times | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,846 | +$104 +2.7% | 20 |
| 534d | nghiapham | Tariff | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,755 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 534d | Vladooos | Russia | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | +$117 +10% | 20 |
| 534d |  UwO | Good Afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,608 | +$50 +1.9% | 20 |
| 534d | UwO2 fills | Trump | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,603 | +$302 +8.4% | 23 |
| 536d | 5551ab | Good Afternoon | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,035 | +$151 +2.1% | 20 |
| 536d | booobi | Tariff 20+ times | BuyNo43¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | +$1,674 +131% | 25 |
| 536d | Bidayat4 fills | Inflation 40+ times | BuyNo19¢ → 100¢ | $13,298 | +$57,194 +430% | 35 |
| 536d | Barfalomew | Trump | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,172 | +$241 +11% | 22 |
| 538d | Sizzling-Fraudster | Trump | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | +$117 +9.9% | 21 |
| 539d | Up-Down | Inflation 40+ times | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $4,644 | −$4,644 −100% | 21 |
| 540d | Doggieson2 fills | Immigrant / Immigration | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $3,225 | −$1,694 −53% | — |
| 540d | Sizzling-Fraudster | Good Afternoon | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$32 +3.2% | 20 |
| 542d |  dududududu | Quantitative Tightening | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$114 +11% | 20 |
| 545d | Bitcoinipie2 | Inflation 40+ times | BuyNo22¢ → 100¢ | $4,920 | +$17,444 +355% | 28 |
| 546d | Doggieson | Tariff 20+ times | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $1,555 | −$1,555 −100% | 20 |
| 546d | singularityman | Trump | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,580 | +$395 +25% | 20 |
| 557d | Doggieson4 fills | Recession | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $6,600 | +$1,678 +25% | 20 |
| 566d | Doggieson | Immigrant / Immigration | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$576 +29% | 20 |
| 566d | Doggieson2 fills | Unemployment 8+ times | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$828 +24% | 20 |
| 572d | Sylendriel | Russia | SellYes10¢ → 0¢ | $5,052 | +$5,052 +100% | — |
| 572d | Lucerius | Russia | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $45,470 | +$5,052 +11% | 20 |
| 572d | 0x6c9a2fd96616dca3f2d19ff021ae23d1d6d6c007 | Inflation 40+ times | BuyYes92¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 20 |
| 575d | dududududu | Inflation 40+ times | SellYes91¢ → 0¢ | $1,006 | +$1,006 +100% | — |
Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on May 7, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will not count. If no such statement happens by June 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Inflation 40+ times means the market gives it about 0%.