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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 0% | −6 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Big Beautiful Bill | 0% | −74 pts | −48 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| America / American 35+ | 0% | −15 pts | −58 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | 0% | −68 pts | −76 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Israel / Iran | 0% | −50 pts | −72 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nazi / Hitler | 0% | −12 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| God 5+ | 0% | −24 pts | −58 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Russia / Ukraine | 0% | −40 pts | −46 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ | 0% | −30 pts | −68 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Joe / Biden | 0% | −38 pts | −65 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ICE | 0% | −24 pts | −47 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| George Washington | 0% | −39 pts | −75 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hell 3+ | 0% | −26 pts | −31 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trans / Transgender | 0% | −15 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Space Force | 0% | −31 pts | −34 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Dome | 0% | −29 pts | −39 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 476d |  414B | MAGA / Make America Great Again | SellNo>99¢ | $1,648 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 476d | LBZone2 fills | Russia / Ukraine | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,075 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | LBZone2 fills | Nazi / Hitler | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,135 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | LBZone | God 5+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,567 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | Sharky6999 | Dome | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,587 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d |  Bertapotamous2 fills | God 5+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,752 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | Sharky6999 | Space Force | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,225 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | Sharky6999 | Joe / Biden | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,565 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | Bertapotamous | Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 476d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,517 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d |  0xdc3E831cad | Big Beautiful Bill | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,257 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | cowcat | Israel / Iran | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,168 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | cowcat | Trans / Transgender | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,557 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | cowcat | MAGA / Make America Great Again | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,066 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | cowcat | Crypto / Bitcoin | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,727 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | cowcat | Big Beautiful Bill | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,398 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | cowcat | Hell 3+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,557 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | cowcat | God 5+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,803 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | cowcat | America / American 35+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,065 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d |  Naichli | Big Beautiful Bill | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,146 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 476d | Bertapotamous | Crypto / Bitcoin | SellNo>99¢ | $2,554 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 476d | chocolate1232 fills | Crypto / Bitcoin | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | Bertapotamous | MAGA / Make America Great Again | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,371 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 476d | Bertapotamous | Russia / Ukraine | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,257 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 476d | 0xdc3E831cad | God 5+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,557 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d | 0xdc3E831cad | America / American 35+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,238 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 476d |  tunatyler2 fills | Crypto / Bitcoin | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,025 | +$46 +1.5% | 20 |
| 476d | EscalateFund | George Washington | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$135 +13% | 20 |
| 476d | Naichli | George Washington | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,942 | +$450 +11% | 20 |
| 476d |  KING-VIP23 | God 5+ | BuyYes25¢ → 0¢ | $1,071 | −$1,071 −100% | 20 |
| 476d |  Temmyr3 fills | Big Beautiful Bill | BuyYes68¢ → 0¢ | $3,867 | −$3,867 −100% | 20 |
| 476d | Naichli | Crypto / Bitcoin | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | +$61 +5.8% | 20 |
| 476d | Naichli | America / American 35+ | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,958 | +$319 +16% | 20 |
| 476d |  TheWolfOfPoly | Crypto / Bitcoin | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | +$88 +8.6% | 20 |
| 476d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | Crypto / Bitcoin | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,481 | +$299 +8.6% | 20 |
| 476d | mbbbbb | Big Beautiful Bill | SellYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,384 | +$1,384 +100% | — |
| 476d | mbbbbb | Big Beautiful Bill | BuyYes63¢ → 0¢ | $1,890 | −$1,890 −100% | 20 |
| 476d | Genuine-Terminal | Big Beautiful Bill | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,725 | −$1,725 −100% | 20 |
| 476d |  rWallStreetBets💎 | God 5+ | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$489 +43% | 20 |
| 476d |  betwick2 fills | Big Beautiful Bill | BuyNo45¢ → 100¢ | $3,017 | +$3,753 +124% | 21 |
| 478d | betwick2 fills | Crypto / Bitcoin | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $10,361 | +$598 +5.8% | 21 |
| 478d | badatthis | ICE | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$389 +35% | 27 |
| 478d | badatthis | Trans / Transgender | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,196 | +$299 +25% | 25 |
| 478d | badatthis | Nazi / Hitler | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$169 +16% | 24 |
| 478d | betwick | Israel / Iran | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,220 | +$697 +57% | 28 |
| 478d |  TortugaGorda | MAGA / Make America Great Again | BuyNo34¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | +$2,276 +194% | 28 |
| 478d | Mushy-Infinite | God 5+ | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 28 |
| 479d | sl1meval | Crypto / Bitcoin | BuyYes9¢ → 0¢ | $1,128 | −$1,128 −100% | 26 |
| 480d | 0xf8d6…0062 | MAGA / Make America Great Again | BuyYes76¢ → 0¢ | $1,980 | −$1,980 −100% | 22 |
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech at an Independence Day celebration on July 4. You can find more information on that here: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/donors-promised-vip-experience-to-military-events-with-trump-85b9f83b This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word comprised of two full words in common usage will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the main speech Trump gives at the named event. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Crypto / Bitcoin means the market gives it about 0%.