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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4 | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 3 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 5 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 6 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 7 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 8 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 9+ | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 476d |  JaidenAnimations | July 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,312 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 476d | HotDogs | July 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 476d | Varil | July 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,638 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 476d | Varil | July 6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,622 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 476d | BobbyB2 fills | July 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,262 | +$10 +0.3% | 4 |
| 476d |  Funfzig | July 4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,925 | +$17 +0.9% | 4 |
| 477d | peepeepooppoop | July 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 477d |  Babar1952 | July 4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,729 | +$22 +1.3% | 4 |
| 477d | HotDogs | July 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,548 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
This market will resolve to according to the date (ET) Donald Trump first signs the next reconciliation bill into law. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 4 means the market gives it about 100%.