Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 100% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| New York City | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Baltimore | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · 3¢ | — | ended |
| Detroit | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| San Francisco | 0% | +1 pts | −3 pts | — · 3¢ | — | ended |
| Boston | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Seattle | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · 3¢ | — | ended |
| Los Angeles | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d | New York City | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,433 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Los Angeles | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,694 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Seattle | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,891 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | San Francisco | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,307 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Detroit | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Boston | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,791 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Baltimore | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,760 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 296d | Detroit | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$6 +0.5% | 4 | |
| 297d | New York City | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$7 +0.5% | 4 | |
| 305d | Boston | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | +$26 +2.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. Qualifying actions include but are not limited to: - A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city. - An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city. - A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized). - An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city. Non-qualifying actions include: - Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement - Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city. - Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location. - A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Chicago means the market gives it about 100%.