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Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 0 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended | |
| OpenAI | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| xAI | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Meta | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Anthropic | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mistral AI | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Microsoft | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Z.ai | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tencent | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Moonshot | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Company A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 358d | sleepin | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,374 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 358d | aviato3 fills | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,136 | +$101 +1.1% | 4 | |
| 358d | cigarettes11 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,874 | +$37 +0.2% | 4 |
| 358d | cigarettes11 fills | Alibaba | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,884 | +$27 +0.1% | 4 |
| 358d | klnr11 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,496 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 | |
| 358d | cigarettes11 fills | OpenAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,882 | +$30 +0.1% | 4 |
| 358d | cigarettes11 fills | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,882 | +$30 +0.1% | 4 |
| 358d | mybigmoney | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 | |
| 359d | Bukaj | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$18 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 359d | cigarettes9 fills | Z.ai | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,766 | +$27 +0.2% | 4 |
| 359d |  Cookedtan9 fills | OpenAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,691 | +$33 +0.3% | 4 |
| 359d | Cookedtan9 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,303 | +$61 +0.5% | 4 |
| 359d | Cookedtan6 fills | Alibaba | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,039 | +$21 +0.3% | 4 |
| 359d | Cookedtan8 fills | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,113 | +$36 +0.3% | 4 |
| 359d | Back-Restaurant | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,623 | +$16 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 359d | night210 | Z.ai | SellNo>99¢ | $5,994 | −$12 −0.2% | — |
| 359d | night210 | Z.ai | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,000 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 359d | cpp55552 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,809 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 359d | niubile | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,410 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 359d | cigarettes7 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,103 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 359d |  haoniubi | Anthropic | SellNo>99¢ | $2,894 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 359d | haoniubi | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,897 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 359d | haoniubi2 fills | DeepSeek | SellNo>99¢ | $4,810 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 359d | haoniubi2 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,815 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 359d | yhulp | Meta | SellNo>99¢ | $1,011 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 359d | yhulp | Tencent | SellNo>99¢ | $1,017 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 359d | yhulp | Mistral AI | SellNo>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 359d | muthy | Moonshot | SellNo>99¢ | $1,051 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 359d | muthy | Tencent | SellNo>99¢ | $1,033 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 359d | muthy | Mistral AI | SellNo>99¢ | $1,017 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 359d | Lolololol | BuyYes100¢ | $1,783 | +$9 +0.5% | 4 | |
| 359d | fullrandom2 fills | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,307 | +$27 +1.2% | 4 | |
| 359d | night210 | DeepSeek | SellNo>99¢ | $4,795 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 359d | night210 | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,800 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 360d | CanadianGoose | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,817 | +$20 +0.7% | 4 | |
| 360d | night210 | Microsoft | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 360d | night210 | Microsoft | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 360d | Viperto | Microsoft | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 360d | Viperto | Microsoft | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 360d | night210 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,953 | −$80 −2.0% | — | |
| 360d | night210 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$32 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 360d | cigarettes2 fills | Microsoft | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,084 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 361d | 546F746573204D63476F746573 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | −$17 −1.7% | — | |
| 361d | Slim-EyebrowsNew account | Z.ai | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,223 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 361d | Bright-ZigguratNew account | Z.ai | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,303 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 361d | lensisi | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$22 +1.1% | 4 | |
| 362d | Cookedtan9 fills | Z.ai | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,541 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 362d | Cookedtan8 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,240 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 362d | lowrisk24 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,427 | −$73 −2.1% | — | |
| 362d | Cookedtan8 fills | Mistral AI | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,535 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | guijiajia | Meta | SellNo>99¢ | $2,395 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 363d | 67676767 | Mistral AI | SellNo>99¢ | $2,974 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 363d | 67676767 | Mistral AI | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,987 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | guijiajia | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,423 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | Lost-Principle | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,784 | +$51 +1.3% | 4 | |
| 363d | cigarettes2 fills | Mistral AI | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,690 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | Cookedtan6 fills | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,203 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | cigarettes2 fills | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,690 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 365d | ffff66ddd | Moonshot | SellNo>99¢ | $2,246 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 365d | ffff66ddd | Moonshot | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,253 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
Ludoc5 sharesThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Google means the market gives it about 100%.